Funny, how no one replies to these sorts of questions.
I would say, first, see if you can call the school for more information. Ask if you can find out the size of the wait list or at least what the chances have been in the past. The next three years of your life are at stake here and you should know your odds.
Next, try asking on a high traffic board, if anyone has come off the waitlist in the past they should be able to tell you.