North Korea Unveils Nuclear Weapon

[thechoson]

I have seen estimates and studies on what would happen in a conventional invasion.

North Korea would open up artillery fire that will be able to reach Seoul, along with maybe missile attacks that might be targeted at some of the larger cities.  These missiles might be taken down by Patriot missile batteries, maybe not.  Seoul will suffer massive damage and casualties. 

N. Korea has so much of its firepower and men parked right along the DMZ.  The only possible way to decapitate them would be a tactical nuclear strike,which would be stupid cause of the fallout that would spread to Seoul. Hence, before the S. Korean military and U.S. can counter, much of Seoul will get destroyed.

But once the counterattack starts, it will be massive and swift.  South Korea's miliary is one of the best trained in the world.  The U.S. is obviously the best.  Massive air strikes will take out much of the artillery battery in the North, along with missile cites.  Strafing runs will destroy much of the enemy troop capability.  South Korea's tanks are similar to the Abrams tanks of the U.S.

Most predictions are that North Korea's soldiers will not even make it to Seoul, before being pushed back by South Korea's military, with help from US airpower.  Eventually, commando runs will occur behind enemy lines, f-ing up their command structure.

Then the plan calls for counter invasion and regime change in North Korea.

[superiorlobe]

the hardcore neo cons want us to invade Iran as well, then do North Korea shortly.

[The ZAPINATOR]

I think the Neo-Cons are very ideological.  On the one hand, I am VERY sympathetic to their aims, and I think they are similar to the aims of those in the past who have wanted to "make the world safe for Democracy."  On the other hand, I am a little uncomfortable with the way things can work out in practice. 

Say Iraq has Democratic elections, and theocratic leaders who have no respect for the Democratic process are elected (as is practically unavoidable in such a cultural climate).  What happens when they start undermining the Democratic system, and refuse to leave office, because they feel they're on a mission from God?  Either way you can't preserve Democracy unless the peoples' hearts are in Democracy.  I don't know if the various nations of the middle east are there yet.  It seems like with or without Democracy in theory, in practice you're not going to have long-term Democracy because of the prevailing cultural forces.

ZAP

[gobears]

That was a cool analysis Cho.  Brings it to life; very, very scary.  Anyhow I really hope none of this happens though.  I think everyone should just leave NK alone at this point, and "hopefully" their government will eventually fall on its own -- when the funds run out, the people can't handle it anymore, etc.  'Cos the alternative as you made so vividly clear is pretty scary.