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Author Topic: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?  (Read 1159 times)

blueapple

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which is more dependable?

While researching for schools, i bumped into some seeming 'discrepancies' with what i thought was an almost sure-shot schools(based on a school's disclosed applicant profile in LSAC Official Guide book) and what the LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT) tells me.

For example, with my numbers, one school's diclosed applicant profile says there were 326 applied, and 303 admitted. Mindful of some effect of soft factors, one might, as i would, roughly guess that she/he has around 93% chance of getting in; one i would call an almost sure-shot school.

On the other hand, LSAC Data Search tells me with that school, i have 65~80% chance.

As you can see, the difference are quite huge. Though I should also consider other computing criteria LSAC Data Search might use that i don't know, i'm quite torn. i'm torn because i'm not sure whether i have to apply to more lower-ranked schools as safeties than the one mentioned.

what do you think?? 8)

studymaster

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2007, 05:52:17 AM »
To me the point of a safety, is it is conceivable to not get into any of your targets or reaches, and/or to only get into a few and then to realize you really dont care to go to those few. As such the benefits of a safety are:

1.) Back up plan for those who overestimate their chances
2.) Possible scholarship opportunities
3.) Protection from a totally rejected cycle

Number one seems unlikely as commendably you have done research and are asking a question when the research doesn't add up. 2 is up to you, would you go to a lower school for $-$$ ? If so a couple safeties might not be such a bad idea. Number three then becomes the monster in the closet, and so if you are only applyign to a handful of schools, and think there is a non-neglible chance you'll get a string of no's, then toss in a couple bucks and put your nose ot the grindstone for an application or two extra. The cost of the few times when you are wrong is much lower than the waste the majority of the time when you are right.

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blueapple

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2007, 06:19:55 AM »
thank you for the reply and welcoming me  ;)

well, what i should have done was to phrase my question, or questions rather, more directly. (i so much appreciate your neat answer though  ;D)

number one was as the subject mentioned, is LSAC Data Search more dependable than school's self-disclosed applicant profile in considering one's chance?

number two, with the example i have given as a context, is it advisable that i apply to an even lower ranked schools than the one given? Like, the schools LSAC Data Search(NOT the school's applicant profile) says that i would have close to 100% chance of getting in?

geelpiet42

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2007, 03:37:57 PM »
My feeling has always been that each individual school's class profile from their own website are the most dependable data.  The LSAC data serach numbers are a little out of date.

just dot

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2007, 04:28:37 PM »
number one was as the subject mentioned, is LSAC Data Search more dependable than school's self-disclosed applicant profile in considering one's chance?

I think the school's self-disclosed applicant profile would be more accurate.  The LSAC Data Search is helpful to figure out what range of schools you might want to apply to but I don't think it gives the whole picture for individual schools.  I think you should use a combo of several sources to assess your chance including the school's applicant profile (if available), as well as LSN and the LSAC Data Search.  Compare the three and it should give you a good idea of where you are in the range (auto-admit, auto-reject or somewhere in between).  Then if you want to go even farther, you can start doing some research on what the school specifically looks for (diversity?  LSAT?  In-state?  They all seem to have some preference).  That should give you an idea of your chances at the school.



number two, with the example i have given as a context, is it advisable that i apply to an even lower ranked schools than the one given? Like, the schools LSAC Data Search(NOT the school's applicant profile) says that i would have close to 100% chance of getting in?

It depends.  How many schools are you applying to?  If you apply to 2-3 schools where your chances are that high (70-80%) you should be more than fine.  Many schools are giving out fee-waivers, though.  If there is a lower ranked school you would be interested in and can get a fee waiver for- why not?

Honestly, though, the school you were mentioning you probably have a better chance than the LSAC Data Search is saying.  I would do some research around LSN if I were you.  See if you can check the profiles of a few of the people in that range that were rejected (if you can find any...and also notice that most of the ones who never changed their profile from "Applied" were probably rejected).  See if you can find some pattern to it.  Maybe they were late applicants...maybe they just had very weak applications and were rejected from several schools they should have been accepted to. Sometimes you can do some research and get some idea of why. 

Make your application strong and somewhat early and you should probably be a lock for that school. 
To put it bluntly, I seem to have a whole superstructure with no foundation. But I`m working on the foundation.

MHLM

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2007, 04:50:58 PM »
which is more dependable?

While researching for schools, i bumped into some seeming 'discrepancies' with what i thought was an almost sure-shot schools(based on a school's disclosed applicant profile in LSAC Official Guide book) and what the LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT) tells me.

For example, with my numbers, one school's diclosed applicant profile says there were 326 applied, and 303 admitted. Mindful of some effect of soft factors, one might, as i would, roughly guess that she/he has around 93% chance of getting in; one i would call an almost sure-shot school.

On the other hand, LSAC Data Search tells me with that school, i have 65~80% chance.

As you can see, the difference are quite huge. Though I should also consider other computing criteria LSAC Data Search might use that i don't know, i'm quite torn. i'm torn because i'm not sure whether i have to apply to more lower-ranked schools as safeties than the one mentioned.

what do you think?? 8)

For what it's worth, I'll repeat one other LSDer's explanation of the LSAC Search's flawed methodology. Essentially, the program seems to determine how many previous applicants were accepted with your GPA and LSAT--the "catch" being that it checks GPA and LSAT independent of one another. For instance, let's say Candidate 1 has a GPA of 3.9 and an LSAT of 160. School X accepted about 80% of people with that GPA but only 20% with that LSAT, so the program says Candidate 1 has a 50% shot. Let's take Candidate 2 who has a GPA of 2.9 and an LSAT of 175. School X accepted about 10% of people with that GPA and 90% with that LSAT, so the program gives Candidate 2 the same estimated chance: 50%. Clearly this is a flawed way to generate meaningful statistical predictions. Candidate 2, in reality, probably has a far better shot than Candidate 1 at most schools (save for those that notoriously favor high GPAs). Moral of story: consider the LSAC Search results with caution.

The schools that publish admissions profiles provide really great references for prediction purposes. If it says that 30/35 were accepted with numbers in your range, you know you have a pretty good shot (and these are real people that were admitted, not mythical statistics pulled out of thin air). I would definitely give more weight to the profiles (if they're available).

studymaster

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2007, 05:05:40 AM »
which is more dependable?

While researching for schools, i bumped into some seeming 'discrepancies' with what i thought was an almost sure-shot schools(based on a school's disclosed applicant profile in LSAC Official Guide book) and what the LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT) tells me.

For example, with my numbers, one school's diclosed applicant profile says there were 326 applied, and 303 admitted. Mindful of some effect of soft factors, one might, as i would, roughly guess that she/he has around 93% chance of getting in; one i would call an almost sure-shot school.

On the other hand, LSAC Data Search tells me with that school, i have 65~80% chance.

As you can see, the difference are quite huge. Though I should also consider other computing criteria LSAC Data Search might use that i don't know, i'm quite torn. i'm torn because i'm not sure whether i have to apply to more lower-ranked schools as safeties than the one mentioned.

what do you think?? 8)

For what it's worth, I'll repeat one other LSDer's explanation of the LSAC Search's flawed methodology. Essentially, the program seems to determine how many previous applicants were accepted with your GPA and LSAT--the "catch" being that it checks GPA and LSAT independent of one another. For instance, let's say Candidate 1 has a GPA of 3.9 and an LSAT of 160. School X accepted about 80% of people with that GPA but only 20% with that LSAT, so the program says Candidate 1 has a 50% shot. Let's take Candidate 2 who has a GPA of 2.9 and an LSAT of 175. School X accepted about 10% of people with that GPA and 90% with that LSAT, so the program gives Candidate 2 the same estimated chance: 50%. Clearly this is a flawed way to generate meaningful statistical predictions. Candidate 2, in reality, probably has a far better shot than Candidate 1 at most schools (save for those that notoriously favor high GPAs). Moral of story: consider the LSAC Search results with caution.

The schools that publish admissions profiles provide really great references for prediction purposes. If it says that 30/35 were accepted with numbers in your range, you know you have a pretty good shot (and these are real people that were admitted, not mythical statistics pulled out of thin air). I would definitely give more weight to the profiles (if they're available).

WOW
Yeah that would f up the search results but yay for me, I am stronger in LSAT so it must be underestimating..
It is whispered that soon, if we all heed the call, the piper will lead us to reason.

billymahogany

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2007, 01:35:05 AM »
The search gives you a range, but that's about all it's good for. 
In:  UF, Tulane, FSU($), Miami($$$), Stetson, Oregon($)
Out: Washington and Lee
W/L: Arizona
Decision: UF c/o 2011!

blueapple

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #8 on: November 15, 2007, 05:10:33 AM »
thanks all!

MHLM, that indepent thingy is quite shocking.. thank you for the info. 
dotlyn, thanks for the combo tip.

good luck to all of us who are applying  ;D

billymahogany

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Re: LSAC Data Search(UGPA+LSAT)? or school's disclosed applicant profile?
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2007, 12:03:14 PM »
In:  UF, Tulane, FSU($), Miami($$$), Stetson, Oregon($)
Out: Washington and Lee
W/L: Arizona
Decision: UF c/o 2011!