I've decided I'm not going to pay to apply to more than 6 schools. I'm getting a couple fee wavers so I'll probably apply to 8. No need to apply to more than 10 I think -- seems like overkill to me.

I don't know, it seems pretty easy to get to the 10 numbers.

Let's say you do 2 reach schools (typically that would be a low number). Now, at your target schools, where you have maybe a 60-40 chance of getting in, to give yourself a 95% chance of admission you need to apply to x schools from the formula 0.10 = 1 - (0.4)^x. Solving numerically in Excel yields x of 4 schools. Then, if you want to have 2 safety/scholarship schools (probably a low number), you're looking at a total of 8.

So I don't think 10 is at all overkill to make sure you have a very good chance of getting into one of your target schools, given that from my calculations 8 would really be about the lowest number your typical person would even consider...