Citing a number quoted over and over again on internet message boards doesn't make it scientific.
True, but since it was confirmed (at least very closely) by statistical evidence, I guess it's still good enough.
And I don't think it's surprising that people don't think divorce would happen to them. Why would you want to enter into a marriage that you believed might end in divorce?
Because I believe people generally and intelligent and reflective and consider also the unwanted outcomes when making a decision. I know I'm putting a lot of faith in "people", but that's how I am. The same way I know that driving might
lead to a car crash. I chose to do it because the reward of driving outweighs the risk of being hit by a truck. I like to think people getting married are realistic enough to make the same risk versus reward consideration. If you truly love someone, 50% chance of success would be worth taking. Although, with precautions.
Many of these people are deluding themselves, or are simply not thinking it through.
I'd argue all of them, but good enough. I don't think there's a single married couple in the world who shouldn't even consider the possibility of a divorce.
It is possible to think through (with your brain) the decision of getting married and consciously decide that a prenup undermines the foundation of marriage not to be worth it (particularly since prenups can often be challenged in court anyway).
Yes it is, but I firmly believe it to be an unwise decision. If the prenup has to go to court you can only image how messy the divorce would be without one.
I am very confident in my marriage. I would never want to be part of a marriage in which I was anything less than confident, and I'm not sure why anyone else would, either.
I agree, confident is good. Blind confidence isn't. You should
believe that the marriage would last. You should, however, not totally disregard the chances that it might not.