room at the top

[dimrod80]

This might be crazy or overly optimistic, but I've complied a list of top law schools and their class size of 1L's:

Yale: 180
Stanford: 180
Harvard: 560
Columbia: 380
NYU: 450
Chicago: 200
Penn: 240
Boalt: 270
Mich:  360
VA: 360

total:  3180 top 10

Ok, now if we look at the LSAT in terms of percentage and not score then there are a finite amount of people who could have scored higher than 170.  Lets say that is the  97th percentile (I'm basing my percentages on the October 2006 - but I imagine they remain consistent).  Lets say this year there are 80,000 applicants (I'm being liberal, I've heard that there will be more like 60,000), so the highest 3% is only 2400.  All of them are getting into a top 10 if they want it.  Lets go to the next percentile.  Another 800 (total 3200).  Pretty much all of them are getting in to (that brings us about down to 168-169 range). 

Now obviously there are othe factors such as gpa, softs, but for the purpose of this, lets just tell the truth and admit that they don't matter as much as LSAT.  Of course, some people are going to choose lower schools for scholarship money and some people with lower schools will be auto-admits because of URM status (I'm not criticizing the system, these are just facts).  But even so, I think that anyway over the 96% can rest assured that he/she will get into a top ten. 

Now lets go and add the others in the t14s. 

Duke: 200
Northwestern: 240
Cornell: 190
Georgetown: 450 (ft)

That's another 1080 to add to the pot.  Which brings us down another percentage point to the 95% LSAT (167ers).  In total there are 4260 spots in t14 schools and there are 4000 people who scored better than 95%.  You are all getting in.

The reality is that all things being equal, anyone in the highest 95% should be getting in to a t14.  But the lower the LSAT, the better other factors need to be.  A 167er with a 3.2 GPA, hasn't got a prayer.  So my point in this is not say that everyone will get in.  Only that if you didn't break 170, but you broke 167 and you didn't get in, then there is something else about your application that is weak.  Most likely GPA, but it could also be a badly written PS or LORs, who knows.  But don't blame your LSAT score - there was room for you at the top. 

Again, this is all my opinion, I am not an admissions officer and I don't have any inside knowledge of the system.  I'm also not a mathematician, so feel free to tell me that this is a totally wrong way to look at the system. 

[Johnny Stuffs His Mouth]

dimrod, I've agonized over pretty much the same thing. with my 173, I have probably one of the top 1000 scores in the country this year. but that doesn't automatically make me one of the 1000 most attractive candidates. im hoping it does make me top 4000, but who knows. there may be a lot of 166/3.8+ out there that take the t14 spots away from splitters like me. but i like your reasoning, since it closely mirrors my own.

[dimrod80]

John - from what I've seen and what I can tell, you should have no problems.  If your score was 169 or under, then maybe a 166/3.8 could overtake you, but with a 173/3.2, rest easy.  The only 170+ers I've seen rejected are those under 3.0GPA.  You will be fine.   This guy I know had a 170, 3.2GPA, and applied the day before the deadline at G-town and he still got in. 

[Johnny Stuffs His Mouth]

i want to rest easy so bad, and i do feel like this cycle will go fine for me. being a resident, i feel like i have a very good chance at UVA, and i've gotten the northwestern and ucla fee waivers (ucla said i was "competitive" for a dean's merit scholarship). not really sure if those should excite me, or if those emails really mean "hey, applications are down this year, so we're trying to recruit applicants so we can keep our acceptance rates low. thanks."

[dimrod80]

John - trust me on this.  Apply, write a decent PS, have decent LORs and you will get into a T14.  If you're scared then apply to all of them, but I don't even think that's necessary.  I will make you a bet for $100 that you'll get in.  You can hold me to that.  Just apply soon, rolling admissions.  Also, if you're really scared, go to LSN and look up people with numbers like yours and you'll see what I mean - they all got in somewhere.  Stop psyching yourself out. 

[Reach]

I think the numbers are skewed by the fact that a disproportionate number of 120-145 scorers do not apply than is the case for 170+ scorers.  How much so, however, I cannot say.

[bamf]

Remind me why do we need to do this again? ... just look at the medians and 25% of the lowest schools, I think that tells you how much space there is for what LSATs.

[Johnny Stuffs His Mouth]

I'm pretty confident I'll go t-14; I've got some experience at a v100 firm and other decent to good soft factors. I'm just worried that at the end of the day, adcomms will be deciding that while my LSAT may help their medians and such ever so slightly, it won't outweigh the hit they'll take to GPA. Then again, at a lot of t14s my LSAT outranks their 75th more than their 25th outranks my GPA, and I haven't seen anyone on LSN with a 173+/3.0+ get outright rejected yet. I'm confident, but still a little scared. I probably will apply to just t14s (+UCLA), and if something bad happens, I've got a job, I can add another year of v100 WE, and apply earlier next year. I'll be OK. Good luck to everyone!

[dimrod80]

I think the numbers are skewed by the fact that a disproportionate number of 120-145 scorers do not apply than is the case for 170+ scorers.  How much so, however, I cannot say.

Good point.  Also, a scorer can use his score for 5 years, so there are probably a good amount of scorers every year coming from the top percents of a previous year.  I have no idea if this makes any sense though.  Then again, mabye with the number of applications beging down this year, our chances are better anyway. 

The real reason I started this thread is that I saw on LSN someone from last year with 167LSAT and 4.0 GPA who got rejected from all t14 schools.  He wrote in the comments portion that the only weak part of his application was LSAT score.  I feel like based on other empirical evidence, he is wrong.  If a 167er is rejected from EVERY t14, then there has to something else wrong with the application (like an obnoxious ps or bad LORs) and it is not just LSAT score, because there is room at the top for him. 

[Law School Hero]

hey along these lines check out this data from bu.  i know it is not quite t14 or whatever but it is a school i am very interested in.

http://officialguide.lsac.org/OFFGUIDE/pdf/lsac3087.pdf

scroll down to the applicant profile table on the last page.

number of applicants with a lsat of 170 or higher: 325
number of applicants with a gpa 3.5 or higher: 2963

unless i'm reading this wrong but i'm pretty sure i'm not