Law School Discussion

Nine Years of Discussion
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Poll

Why did Sarah Palin resign?

Personal scandal
 5 (17.2%)
Probable indictment
 7 (24.1%)
Just plain craziness
 3 (10.3%)
Looooong lead up to 2012
 4 (13.8%)
Something else
 2 (6.9%)
Some combination of the above
 8 (27.6%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Author Topic: The Thread on Politics  (Read 425890 times)

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6840 on: November 01, 2008, 08:05:28 AM »
True enough.  ::sigh::

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6841 on: November 01, 2008, 08:05:55 AM »
AP poll shows Obama backers gleeful, McCain's glum
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON, Associated Press Writers Alan Fram And Trevor Tompson, Associated Press Writers 53 mins ago

WASHINGTON That smiling guy walking down the street? Odds are he's a Barack Obama backer. The grouchy looking one? Don't ask, and don't necessarily count on him to vote next week, either.

More John McCain supporters feel glum about the presidential campaign while more of Obama's are charged up over it, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Saturday.

The survey shows McCain backers have become increasingly upset in recent weeks, a period that has seen Obama take a firm lead in many polls. One expert says the contrasting moods could affect how likely the two candidates' supporters are to vote on Election Day, possibly dampening McCain's turnout while boosting Obama's.

While 43 percent of the Democrat Obama's backers said they are excited over the campaign, just 13 percent of McCain's said so, according to the survey of adults, conducted by Knowledge Networks. Six in 10 Obama supporters said the race interests them, compared to four in 10 backing McCain, the Republican senator from Arizona.

On the flip side, 52 percent of McCain supporters said the campaign has left them frustrated, compared to 30 percent of Obama's. A quarter of McCain backers say they feel helpless, double the rate of those preferring Obama, the Illinois senator.

More McCain supporters also feel angry and bored, while Obama's are likelier to say they are proud and hopeful.

All of this is a bad sign for McCain, according to George E. Marcus, a political scientist from Williams College who has studied the role emotion plays in politics. Negative feelings about a campaign can discourage voters by making them less likely to go through what can be a painful process: Voting for someone who will lose.

"If I'm getting my head handed to me by a tennis player, my brain is saying, 'Do I want a second match? No,'" Marcus said. "Why do something that's going to lead to failure?"

Marcus said such emotions can be overcome by outside events, such as a campaign or neighbor urging a person to vote. There's also the danger exuberant Obama backers might decide not to vote because of overconfidence. The Obama and McCain organizations combined have spent hundreds of millions of dollars for those very reasons.

Obama leads McCain among likely voters in the AP-Yahoo News poll, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Supporters of McCain cite a dislike for Obama, dissatisfaction with the campaign's tone and frustration with how news organizations have treated their candidate.

"Flat disgusted, how's that?" said Billie Hart, 80, a Houston Republican backing McCain. "Because that's the way I feel about it. I don't like the individual."

Many Democrats say they're energized by a candidate they perceive as different from most politicians and who can make a real difference.

"Elections have always been so ho-hum," said Kathleen Rockwell, 61, an Obama supporter from Redmond, Wash. This time, "I feel connected. And that feels good."

The AP-Yahoo News poll, which has followed the same group of 2,000 people since last November, underscores how individuals have reacted to the campaign's currents. For many McCain supporters, it's not been a happy period.

Three in 10 McCain backers who report being frustrated now said in September they weren't. That is quadruple the number who became less frustrated.

At the same time, one in five McCain supporters are not interested in the campaign now who said they were in September. Half that number gained interest. By similar margins, McCain backers report becoming more angry, bored, overwhelmed and helpless and have become less excited, proud and hopeful.

"I'm real interested in having it over," said Michele Roos, 64, a McCain supporter from Newport News, Va.

Enthusiasm by Obama backers has largely stayed steady since September, though slightly more of them 31 percent now say the campaign makes them feel proud.

"I didn't like the candidates before," said Angelique Sims, 38, an Obama supporter from Shawnee, Okla. "I like his character. I like the things he represents. He represents my views."

A closer look at the numbers show how that emotions are playing out to Obama's advantage in several pivotal groups of voters.

Forty-eight percent of those under age 30 who support Obama say they are excited over the race, compared to just 21 percent of those young voters who back McCain. That age group has been a reservoir of strong support for the Democrat.

Just 44 percent of whites supporting the Republican say the campaign interests them, compared to 58 percent of whites and 72 percent of blacks supporting Obama.

At the same time, half of McCain supporters age 65 and up say they're frustrated, compared to three in 10 of Obama's older voters. Also saying they're frustrated are 53 percent of whites backing McCain compared to 40 percent of whites and 12 percent of blacks behind Obama.

The AP-Yahoo News poll of 1,753 adults was conducted Oct. 17-27 and had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Included were interviews with 803 Obama supporters and 703 McCain supporters, with error margins of plus or minus 3.5 and 3.7 points respectively.

The poll was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/ap_yahoo_poll_voter_emotions

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6842 on: November 01, 2008, 12:27:39 PM »
Your October Surprise (in November)

Barack Obama's recently-discovered Aunt in Boston has been living in the U.S. illegally for four years, reports AP:

    Zeituni Onyango, 56, referred to as "Aunti Zeituni" in Obama's memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request, a person familiar with the matter told the AP late Friday. This person spoke on condition of anonymity because no one was authorized to discuss Onyango's case.

    Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcment official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government, but the AP could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in its release.


This story will certainly provide ample grist for the right in the final days of the race, coming as it does at the combustilble intersection of a hot-button issue (immigration) and Obama's character and background (especially anything to do with his father's side of the family).

Whether it gets traction with folks who are not already opposed to Obama remains to be seen. 

Apparently not helping to fuel the fire will be John McCain.   An aide said this morning that they would not be weighing in.

UPDATE: Obama's camp gave a one sentence statement to the AP:  "Senator Obama has no knowledge of her status but obviously believes that any and all appropriate laws be followed."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Your_October_Surprise_in_November.html

Eugene Young

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6843 on: November 01, 2008, 01:14:22 PM »
That's the best they can do? I was waiting for the new bin Laden (mix) tape to drop.

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6844 on: November 01, 2008, 01:17:15 PM »
Yeah I'm not impressed with this.

Miss P

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6845 on: November 01, 2008, 05:34:39 PM »
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?source=most_commented&story_id=12516666

A well balanced article with no spin.  Just the facts ma'am.   Good stuff.

I don't want to start a whole thing (some of you know we had a discussion about it in SFLSD), but was anyone here troubled by this line?

Quote from: Economist endorsement
At home he would . . .lessen the tendency of American blacks to blame all their problems on racism.
That's cool how you referenced a case.

Quote from: archival
I'm so far from the end of my tether right now that I reckon I could knit myself some socks with the slack.

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6846 on: November 01, 2008, 05:49:37 PM »
Whoa! I totally missed that!

Miss P

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6847 on: November 01, 2008, 05:52:25 PM »
Whoa! I totally missed that!

If I know you, you were too busy blaming your problems on racism to notice! :P
That's cool how you referenced a case.

Quote from: archival
I'm so far from the end of my tether right now that I reckon I could knit myself some socks with the slack.

Miss P

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6848 on: November 01, 2008, 06:10:20 PM »
Yeah I'm not impressed with this.

I don't really know what it's supposed to say about Obama, either, except that he has foreign relatives from a war-torn country.  Obviously, it's very sad if he knew her situation and was avoiding her or burying it for the sake of political expediency, but there is absolutely nothing out there to indicate that this is the case. We have no context. Meanwhile, if she has really been under a deportation order for four years, there's absolutely no excuse for leaking the information a few days before the election: it's blatant political interference from a department full of political hacks.  (And isn't the leak probably illegal anyway given the confidential nature of asylum proceedings?)

Also, just for the record, documented non-citizens (including asylum petitioners) are allowed in federally funded public housing, and Boston allows undocumented residents in its state-funded housing.  I keep reading blog posts and comments that indicate that Obama must have been involved in a traitorous conspiracy to defraud the city of Boston, state of Massachusetts, and federal government because otherwise there's no way his aunt would have made it into housing.  That's just not the case.  You don't need any papers to get into a Boston housing project, and she could have gotten into a federally funded one with a temporary resident card or an I-94 from the period when her case was pending.

ETA: Yes, the leak was at least a violation of a regulation designed to ensure that asylum seekers not be endangered upon return:

8 CFR 208.6
Disclosure to third parties.

(a) Information contained in or pertaining to any asylum application, records pertaining to any credible fear determination conducted pursuant to 208.30, and records pertaining to any reasonable fear determination conducted pursuant to 208.31, shall not be disclosed without the written consent of the applicant, except as permitted by this section or at the discretion of the Attorney General.

(b) The confidentiality of other records kept by the Service and the Executive Office for Immigration Review that indicate that a specific alien has applied for asylum, received a credible fear or reasonable fear interview, or received a credible fear or reasonable fear review shall also be protected from disclosure. The Service will coordinate with the Department of State to ensure that the confidentiality of those records is maintained if they are transmitted to Department of State offices in other countries.

(c) This section shall not apply to any disclosure to:

(1) Any United States Government official or contractor having a need to examine information in connection with:

(i) The adjudication of asylum applications;

(ii) The consideration of a request for a credible fear or reasonable fear interview, or a credible fear or reasonable fear review;

(iii) The defense of any legal action arising from the adjudication of, or failure to adjudicate, the asylum application, or from a credible fear determination or reasonable fear determination under 208.30 or 208.31;

(iv) The defense of any legal action of which the asylum application, credible fear determination, or reasonable fear determination is a part; or

(v) Any United States Government investigation concerning any criminal or civil matter; or

(2) Any Federal, State, or local court in the United States considering any legal action:

(i) Arising from the adjudication of, or failure to adjudicate, the asylum application, or from a credible fear or reasonable fear determination under 208.30 or 208.31; or

(ii) Arising from the proceedings of which the asylum application, credible fear determination, or reasonable fear determination is a part.
That's cool how you referenced a case.

Quote from: archival
I'm so far from the end of my tether right now that I reckon I could knit myself some socks with the slack.

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #6849 on: November 01, 2008, 06:21:24 PM »
Whoa! I totally missed that!

If I know you, you were too busy blaming your problems on racism to notice! :P

 :D