Law School Discussion

Nine Years of Discussion
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Poll

Why did Sarah Palin resign?

Personal scandal
 5 (17.2%)
Probable indictment
 7 (24.1%)
Just plain craziness
 3 (10.3%)
Looooong lead up to 2012
 4 (13.8%)
Something else
 2 (6.9%)
Some combination of the above
 8 (27.6%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Author Topic: The Thread on Politics  (Read 428378 times)

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4460 on: May 06, 2008, 11:28:34 PM »
OK, the suspense is killing me...

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4461 on: May 07, 2008, 08:21:37 AM »
Very narrow Clinton victory, eh?  Nice:

 Obama takes decisive step toward nomination
By: Ben Smith
May 7, 2008 07:36 AM EST

Sen. Barack Obama took a large and potentially decisive step toward the Democratic nomination Tuesday night, making dramatic symbolic and numerical gains in North Carolina and Indiana.

Obama’s emphatic North Carolina victory, and a narrow loss in Indiana, extended his lead in the count of delegates to the Democratic National Convention, and in most counts of the combined popular vote.

As important, they diminished Clinton’s rationale for urging Democratic superdelegates to override his delegate lead and give the nomination to her.

Her case to party elders — that Obama was a flawed, flagging candidate — lost much of its altitude despite a nail-biting and narrow victory in Indiana. Her bread-and-butter pitch to voters fell prey to the doubts Obama’s television campaign raised about her sincerity. What had been, in the best of scenarios an up hill climb, became far steeper.

"There were those who were saying that North Carolina could be a ‘game-changer’for Mrs. Clinton," Obama jeered in his Raleigh victory speech. "But today, what North Carolina decided is that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC."

Obama then pivoted toward the general election, warning of coming Republican attacks and — after tweaking Clinton’s high hopes in North Carolina — addressing her only with gracious language.

He made no suggestion that she should leave the race, and even congratulated her on her “apparent victory” in Indiana — which remained very much in the balance as he spoke. Visually and rhetorically he began to reintroduce himself to the broad general election audience, stressing his patriotism and his American roots.

“I know the promise of America because I have lived it,” he said, standing before a backdrop of middle-aged white women waving small American flags. He cited “the founding ideals that the flag draped over my grandfather’s coffin stands for — it is life, and liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

Clinton, meanwhile, promised to forge ahead. In a muted tone, with her husband glum and sun-burned behind her, Clinton pledged to charge ahead “full speed.”

“I’m going to work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this month,” she said. She cast her potential victory in Indiana — citing her opponent’s words — as a “tiebreaker” after the two split victories in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

But Clinton also thanked her family, her staff and her supporters at unusually great length, giving the speech a somewhat valedictory tone. She promised to fight for a Democratic victory in November “no matter what happens.”

 

Tim Russert of NBC News reported around midnight that Clinton had canceled her scheduled network morning appearances for Wednesday morning, contributing to the perception that her campaign was thrown back on its heels by the results.

Exit polls suggested that there were no dramatic reversals in the hardened demographic patterns that have determined the outcome of almost every Democratic primary since February. But the outbursts by Obama’s former minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, didn’t seem to damage his support from white voters.

“The fact that we have done as well as we have done tonight says something about the durability of his candidacy,” said Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod.

The victory, in which he appears to have expanded his lead in pledged delegates by more than 10, also put Obama on course to take a clear majority of pledged delegates on May 20.

Obama’s strong night also meant an unconventional gamble of his paid off. Clinton made the issue of the primaries her call for a gas tax holiday, and she portrayed Obama as out of touch for opposing it, on the stump and in a series of television ads.

Obama, flouting conventional wisdom, met her bread-and-butter appeal with a high-minded policy argument and a character attack, calling the plan a gimmick and jabbing at her Achilles’ heel, voters’ sense that she is untrustworthy.

Clinton hoped her argument would reveal Obama’s abiding weakness with working class voters. “What’s the matter with Barack Obama?” asked one of her television ads.

Instead, Obama appears to have used the issue to underline her weaknesses.

Clinton’s own gamble, meanwhile, cratered. She spent unexpected days in North Carolina, where Bill Clinton made nine stops Monday, and many of her aides held out hope she could win there.

But Obama won by double-digits, picking up more than a third of the white vote in the state. On stage in Indianapolis, her husband’s red, sun-soaked face was all he had to show for the days he’d spent there.

Finally, the Indiana results seemed likely to leave a bad taste in the mouths of supporters of both candidates. From the stage in Indianapolis, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh joked about past alleged voting irregularities in Gary, telling the story of a little girl who supported Hillary and suggesting she might be permitted to vote in Lake County.

Meanwhile, Obama’s press secretary, Bill Burton, e-mailed reporters twice with claims that conservative talk show host Rush Limbaugh had provided Clinton's margin by suggesting that Republicans vote for her maliciously to prolong the race.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10144.html

Nande

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4462 on: May 07, 2008, 09:18:56 AM »

Clinton, meanwhile, promised to forge ahead. In a muted tone, with her husband glum and sun-burned behind her, Clinton pledged to charge ahead “full speed.”

Is this really a surprise?  I wonder, if the tables were turned, how quickly Obama would be pushed out.  She does have an argument when it comes to winning those big states, and on top of that, I've heard that 50% of the people who supported Clinton would not vote for Obama if he were the nominee, compared to 38% of Obama supporters not supporting Clinton.  Honestly, that has me concerned.


  But the outbursts by Obama’s former minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, didn’t seem to damage his support from white voters.

“The fact that we have done as well as we have done tonight says something about the durability of his candidacy,” said Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod.

I thought for sure the numbers would be different due to the controversy...I expected them to be.  But I've got to agree, this does say something.
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7S

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4463 on: May 07, 2008, 10:18:14 AM »
Is this really a surprise?  I wonder, if the tables were turned, how quickly Obama would be pushed out.  She does have an argument when it comes to winning those big states, and on top of that, I've heard that 50% of the people who supported Clinton would not vote for Obama if he were the nominee, compared to 38% of Obama supporters not supporting Clinton.  Honestly, that has me concerned.

I've never heard those numbers. Are you comparing the number of Clinton supporters who would support McCain over Obama and vice versa?
It is easy to change the language of oppression without changing the sociopolitical situation of its victims.

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4464 on: May 07, 2008, 10:45:38 AM »
Clinton loaned herself $6.4 million:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/primary_rdp

Lol going broke to fight a losing battle.  Love it!

Nande

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4465 on: May 07, 2008, 11:35:19 AM »
Is this really a surprise?  I wonder, if the tables were turned, how quickly Obama would be pushed out.  She does have an argument when it comes to winning those big states, and on top of that, I've heard that 50% of the people who supported Clinton would not vote for Obama if he were the nominee, compared to 38% of Obama supporters not supporting Clinton.  Honestly, that has me concerned.

I've never heard those numbers. Are you comparing the number of Clinton supporters who would support McCain over Obama and vice versa?

No.  At least that isn't what was addressed in the article.  The question was whether they would throw their support behind the other candidate if theirs did not win the nomination.  Some of those ppl could be thinking along those lines, but since it didn't say specifically, I won't make the assumption.  I read it on CNN last night/early morning.  Those numbers are from Indiana exit polls though.
stuffblackpeoplehate:
"I'm angrier than John McCain on MLK day"

Burning Sands, Esq.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4466 on: May 07, 2008, 01:46:35 PM »
Obama wins by nearly 15 points yesterday in a "Big State" of North Carolina and Clinton won a very narrow victory in Indiana at 51 to 49, pulling literally ONE more delegate out of the state of Indiana than Barack Obama.
 
The total delegate count now stands at:
 
Obama - 1,844
Clinton - 1,686
 
Meaning that Obama needs 2024 - 1844 = 180 more delegates to officially win the Democratic party nomination, compared to Clinton's 338 delegates still needed.
 
There are 6 more primaries remaining, with a total of 216 delegates among them.
 
There are 264 uncommitted superdelegates remaining.
 
 
We are, for the first time, at a point in the race where there are more superdelegates than pledged delegates remaining. 
 
If you assume that we continue with these next 6 primaries, and they split the remaining 216 delegates 50/50 (which is very possible given the demographics of each state), that would put Obama within 75 delegates (at that point needing only 28% of the remaining superdelegates), while Clinton would still at that point need approx 230 delegates (roughly 87% of the remaining superdelegates).
 
 
Not to mention Superdelegate and Democratic Party Elder, former senator and democratic presidential candidate George McGovern today has officially pulled his support from Clinton, to Obama, and urged her to drop out of the race.
 
 
 
So my question to you guys....is this over or not over?
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7S

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4467 on: May 07, 2008, 01:57:32 PM »
it is and has been overly over.
It is easy to change the language of oppression without changing the sociopolitical situation of its victims.

A.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4468 on: May 07, 2008, 02:48:15 PM »
yeah I think even the media are getting tired of it.  But I am amused by people giving import to anything George McGovern has to say.

t L

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #4469 on: May 07, 2008, 03:13:14 PM »
Yep, it's over.  She needs to give up. 

I'd be concerned about that 50% of Clinton supporters not supporting Obama in November though.  He has an UPHILL battle to beat McCain.

This will be the first election I sit out.  I'm not feelin' either candidate.
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