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Why did Sarah Palin resign?

Personal scandal
 5 (17.2%)
Probable indictment
 7 (24.1%)
Just plain craziness
 3 (10.3%)
Looooong lead up to 2012
 4 (13.8%)
Something else
 2 (6.9%)
Some combination of the above
 8 (27.6%)

Total Members Voted: 29

Author Topic: The Thread on Politics  (Read 419367 times)

2Lacoste

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2860 on: January 29, 2008, 11:37:50 PM »
No indication whatsoever, from the folks I know in the campaign, that we're even considering dropping out.  But if it happens, it goes to McCain.  That's pretty obvious.

Interesting.  Do y'all think he's going to make a Super Tuesday comeback or something?


Depends on how he does down South.  He needs to win Southern states to stay viable.  Not just "do well in Southern states" or "place a strong second" or "give a strong showing."  But win.  If he wins Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, etc., then he's a good spot to compete in delegate-rich Texas and hang on.  I think he'll be out and it'll be a dog fight between Romney and McCain.  But I don't think he's out just yet.  Not even after Super Tuesday (depending on his money situation).  I think he sticks it out until after Texas.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2861 on: January 30, 2008, 12:43:10 AM »
man, I wonder who convinced Giuliani to focus on Florida... what a weird strategy.

The Texas Republican primary is so convoluted. McCain, for his support of immigration reform, will win big in south Texa. He'll take the moderate Republicans around the metropolitan areas, where the congressional districts are so compressed. Huckabee will probably take Northeast and East Texas, but those districts are so spread out, I don't know that it will help. The rest of the state...who knows?
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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2862 on: January 30, 2008, 01:26:33 AM »
Yes I do, just not the midwest so much.  And I know where they are...just couldn't care less what goes on in them.

1. Montana is not in the midwest;
2. Minnesota actually has a real city with like (a small number of) black people and stuff.

***

No, Florida is purple.  Not sure about Mich.  I would imagine blue though, with all of the union workers.

No, Michigan is definitely red.  Ann Arbor is the little blue island in a sea of red.

umm.. no it isn't. Michigan hasn't went Red since Bush in '88.

edited

You're right.  I equated Red with conservative, when that's obviously not always the case.  Michigan is fairly conservative, with AA as the outpost of liberalness.

Isn't Detroit pretty liberal too?  And I'd imagine most of the industrial towns like Flint are also pretty Democratic -- maybe angry white Reagan Democrats, but Democrats just the same.  (Alci and I think alike.)  (Also, I have family in the area.)
That's cool how you referenced a case.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2863 on: January 30, 2008, 08:10:03 AM »
Yes I do, just not the midwest so much.  And I know where they are...just couldn't care less what goes on in them.

1. Montana is not in the midwest;
2. Minnesota actually has a real city with like (a small number of) black people and stuff.


1. What the heck do you call it then?
2. Lol do they?  Perhaps I will visit one day.  I'll put it (way down) on my list.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2864 on: January 30, 2008, 08:15:33 AM »
man, I wonder who convinced Giuliani to focus on Florida... what a weird stupid strategy.


Fixed.  In addition:

Rudy defeat marks end of 9/11 politics
By: Ben Smith and David Paul Kuhn
January 30, 2008 06:35 AM EST

Rudy Giuliani's distant third-place finish in Florida may put an end to his bid for president, and it seems also to mark the beginning of the end of a period in Republican politics that began on Sept. 11, 2001.

Giuliani's national celebrity was based on his steady, comforting appearance in Americans' living rooms amid the terrorist attacks, and his campaign for president never found a message beyond that moment.

The emotional connection he forged that day, it seems, has proved politically worthless. After months of wonder that the former mayor seemed to have no ceiling to his support, he turned out to have no floor, trading fourth-place finishes with Ron Paul, a little-known Texas congressman.

"There's a paradox for Rudy," said former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who was a member of the 9/11 Commission. "One of the things he did very well on 9/11 was say, 'We've got to get back to normal.' And that's what's happened. We've gotten back to normal."

Giuliani's failure reflects a broader shift in the American landscape, in which Sept. 11 has so diminished as an emotional touchstone that neither The Gallup Organization nor The Pew Research Center has even polled Americans about the attacks for a half year.

"We have 9/11 fatigue in the United States," said Mitchell Moss, a professor at New York University and an adviser to Giuliani's successor, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a technocrat who has focused on the future, and away from 9/11 and terrorism-related concerns.

Giuliani isn't the only one who suffered from the declining salience of the terror attacks. The Partnership for a Secure America, a bipartisan group that's still pressing to fulfill the recommendations of the 2004 9/11 Commission Report, announced Tuesday that it had produced a 30-second television advertisement to remind Americans of the threat of nuclear terrorism. A country that was brought to war less than five years ago in part by the specter of a "smoking gun" in the form of "a mushroom cloud" now needs reminding that the threat even exists.

"The American attention span has always been very short," former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean, the former chairman of the commission and an adviser to the Partnership, told Politico.

When Gallup last asked about Sept. 11, in the summer of 2007, only 43 percent of Americans considered the war in Iraq "to be part of the war on terrorism which began on Sept. 11, 2001." Four years earlier, in the summer of 2003, 57 percent of Americans believed the war in Iraq was related to the Sept. 11 attacks.

It was that perception shift that made a Sept. 11 campaign far more effective in 2004 than in 2008. The image of George W. Bush standing amidst the rubble of the World Trade Center gave the Bush campaign an anchor to effectively tout their candidate's leadership qualities.

But in the ensuing years as the war in Iraq plummeted in popularity, concern over imminent attacks ebbed, and Americans became increasingly worried about the economy the evocative image of Giuliani managing a city under attack became less and less relevant.

 

The Giuliani campaign failed to shift with the country. Last year, as Sept. 11 was receding from the American zeitgeist, Giuliani's strategists made his performance that day the bedrock of his campaign.

"They never made the pivot from success as a leader after 9/11 in New York to the ability to make success as a leader in federal or national government," said Matt Dowd, the chief strategist for George W. Bush's 2004 campaign. "They over relied on 9/11. There was no reason to talk about that. It was baked into his DNA. What they had to do was to make the transition from why what he did in the aftermath of 9/11 why that would make him a great leader at the time of any situation."

Instead, Giuliani managed to do something that would have been unthinkable a few years earlier: He turned 9/11 into a punch line. The late-night television riffs bubbled into prime time during a Democratic debate in October, when Sen. Joe Biden dismissed the former mayor scornfully.

"There's only three things he mentions in a sentence: a noun, a verb and 9/11," Biden said.

Giuliani's campaign tried in vain to awaken the country to the urgency of terrorism with a television ad released Jan. 2, which featured chanting terrorist hordes and the images of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and Osama bin Laden. Another ad, released Jan. 18, flashed an image of the ruined Twin Towers.

"When the world wavered and history hesitated, he never did," said the narrator.

His ads, though, drew more snide jokes than votes, and he closed out his campaign in Florida on the relatively anodyne question of insurance policy.

After growing accustomed to tapping into fears of terrorism and faith in Republican strength, Giuliani's failure will force a major shift in Republican campaigns, some GOP strategists said.

"Between the trauma of 9/11 and the civil war we had over the present policy in the Gulf people have reached a point where they're just exhausted by it. I think that's a terrible, terrible thing," said Rick Wilson, a Florida-based GOP adman who produced perhaps the iconic post-9/11 television ad: Saxby Chambliss' searing attack on the willingness of Democratic Sen. Max Cleland, a Vietnam War hero, to keep America safe a spot illustrated with the visages of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.

"Americans want to watch 'America's Top Model' and they really, really don't want to be reminded that bad people want to kill them," said Wilson, who worked for Giuliani's 2000 Senate campaign and advised him informally this year. "Talking about 9/11 now is like 'Remember the Maine.'"


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8200.html

 :D @ the bolded

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2865 on: January 30, 2008, 09:03:32 AM »
Edwards is dropping out.
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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2866 on: January 30, 2008, 09:22:10 AM »
Edwards is dropping out.

This is very bad for Obama.

--------------
John Edwards to Quit Presidential Race

NEDRA PICKLER | January 30, 2008 09:12 AM EST | 

DENVER Democrat John Edwards is exiting the presidential race Wednesday, ending a scrappy underdog bid in which he steered his rivals toward progressive ideals while grappling with family hardship that roused voters' sympathies but never diverted his campaign, The Associated Press has learned.

The two-time White House candidate notified a close circle of senior advisers that he planned to make the announcement at a 1 p.m. EST event in New Orleans that had been billed as a speech on poverty, according to two of his advisers. The decision came after Edwards lost the four states to hold nominating contests so far to rivals who stole the spotlight from the beginning _ Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

The former North Carolina senator will not immediately endorse either candidate in what is now a two-person race for the Democratic nomination, said one adviser, who spoke on a condition of anonymity in advance of the announcement.

Edwards waged a spirited top-tier campaign against the two better-funded rivals, even as he dealt with the stunning blow of his wife's recurring cancer diagnosis. In a dramatic news conference last March, the couple announced that the breast cancer that she thought she had beaten had returned, but they would continue the campaign.

Their decision sparked a debate about family duty and public service. But Elizabeth Edwards remained a forceful advocate for her husband, and she was often surrounded at campaign events by well-wishers and emotional survivors cheering her on.

Edwards planned to announce his campaign was ending with his wife and three children at his side. Then he planned to work with Habitat for Humanity at the volunteer-fueled rebuilding project Musicians' Village, the adviser said.

With that, Edwards' campaign will end the way it began 13 months ago _ with the candidate pitching in to rebuild lives in a city still ravaged by Hurricane Katrina. Edwards embraced New Orleans as a glaring symbol of what he described as a Washington that didn't hear the cries of the downtrodden.

Edwards burst out of the starting gate with a flurry of progressive policy ideas _ he was the first to offer a plan for universal health care, the first to call on Congress to pull funding for the war, and he led the charge that lobbyists have too much power in Washington and need to be reigned in.

The ideas were all bold and new for Edwards personally as well, making him a different candidate than the moderate Southerner who ran in 2004 while still in his first Senate term. But the themes were eventually adopted by other Democratic presidential candidates _ and even a Republican, Mitt Romney, echoed the call for an end to special interest politics in Washington.

Edwards' rise to prominence in politics came amid just one term representing North Carolina in the Senate after a career as a trial attorney that made him millions. He was on Al Gore's short list for vice president in 2000 after serving just two years in office. He ran for president in 2004, and after he lost to John Kerry, the nominee picked him as a running mate.

Elizabeth Edwards first discovered a lump in her breast in the final days of that losing campaign. Her battle against the disease caused her husband to open up about another tragedy in their lives _ the death of their teenage son Wade in a 1996 car accident. The candidate barely spoke of Wade during his 2004 campaign, but he offered his son's death to answer questions about how he could persevere when his wife could die.

Edwards made poverty the signature issue of both his presidential campaigns, and he led a four-day tour to highlight the issue in July. The tour, the first to focus on the plight of the poor since Robert F. Kennedy's trip 40 years earlier, also was an effort to remind voters that a rich man can care about the less fortunate. It came as Edwards was dogged by negative coverage of his personal wealth, including his construction of a 28,000-square foot house, his work for a hedge fund that advised the superrich and $400 haircuts.

But even through the dark days of summer and as Obama and Clinton collected astonishing amounts of money that dwarfed his fundraising effort, Edwards maintained a loyal following in the first voting state of Iowa that made him a serious contender. He came in second to Obama in Iowa, an impressive feat of relegating Clinton to third place, before coming in third in the following three contests.

The loss in South Carolina was especially hard because it was where he was born and he had won the state in 2004. But Edwards performed well enough to pick up 58 delegates.



It is easy to change the language of oppression without changing the sociopolitical situation of its victims.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2867 on: January 30, 2008, 09:32:45 AM »
How is this bad for Obama?  I think it's good for him.

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2868 on: January 30, 2008, 09:55:33 AM »
Edwards is dropping out.

This is very bad for Obama.




Are you kidding?!?!  This is GREAT for Obama.  Edwards supporters are far more aligned with Obama supporters than they are with Hillary supporters.  Look at the exit polls - the overwhelming majority of people who voted for Edwards picked Obama as their #2 choice (the same is true for Obama supporters picking Edwards as a #2 choice).

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Re: The Thread on Politics
« Reply #2869 on: January 30, 2008, 10:03:20 AM »
Exactly.