Is or will the conventions influence votes?

[jgruber]

The grand show of the Dem and Pub conventions ...

will anyone decide or change their intended vote because of the conventions?

[buster]

Maybe, but not in the way I suspect you mean. People like to vote for winners, and candidates tend to get substantial polling bounces from the conventions. Such a bounce might be sufficient to swing some people toward a particular candidate because they perceive that candidate (whether consciously or subconsciously) to be a winner.

The grand show of the Dem and Pub conventions ...

will anyone decide or change their intended vote because of the conventions?

[nathanielmark]

I actually think that the positive tone along with charismatic speeches from edwards, obama, and clinton and the postive press may lead some swing voters towards the dems.  the GOP convention could negate this effect though, especially if people like Arnold and McCain are keynote speakers.

[Section Eight]

The grand show of the Dem and Pub conventions ...

will anyone decide or change their intended vote because of the conventions?

Personally, I don't think it will change too many votes in this years elections.  However, I believe there are long term impacts from the conventions.  For example, careers will be changed from peformances at the conventions.

[jgruber]

Buster, I didn't mean any particular way.  It was a general question.

SectionEight, I agree with you on that one, especially the use of the word performance.


I know that they expect a 'bounce' in the polls after conventions, which would seem to indicate that people have changed or made up their minds, but I wonder if they are accurate.
They are called bounces because they expect the numbers to return near the numbers before the conventions.  So is the bounce because people make or change their minds or because the polls reflect something else?

[buster]

I know that they expect a 'bounce' in the polls after conventions, which would seem to indicate that people have changed or made up their minds, but I wonder if they are accurate.
They are called bounces because they expect the numbers to return near the numbers before the conventions.  So is the bounce because people make or change their minds or because the polls reflect something else?

I don't think the bounces reflect any real lasting change in opinions. I do think people can be swayed by the bounce itself.