Waitlists are so tricky to figure out. Just got, the second reserve letter. The first one said that all WL would be reviewed at the beginning of June, which kind of seems inaccurate from some stuff on LSN. The four people to get in off the WL were all notified mid-late May. Only dings were given in June.
It's also tough to gauge many of the factors. On one hand, there are still 146 listed LSNers on the WL who have not withdrawn. The majority of them seem to be between 4.3 and 4.0 on their scale. But at least some of them probably are no longer willing to switch schools but just didn't list that on LSN. As, time goes on and housing contracts are found, I have to imagine this number would increase considerably. I wonder how quickly they start going through people on the WL once it gets to the final week before class begins.