I was under the impression that many, if not most, people on the "hold" list heard one way or another before June.
Mister Big, your point is valid -- the odds off the hold list are probably at least as good as the odds on regular acceptance. That said, the group of people that constitute the applicant pool for the "hold" group is of much higher caliber than that which constitutes the general pool. In other words, it's more difficult to stand out among those who've already stood out. On the other hand, this may be totally specious reasoning. I've been up for waaaaay too long and have had two glasses of wine, so put me in my place if I deserve it.
I don't know anything about Toby Stock; things could be radically different this year. I'm just guessing that, if they were, the applicant community would have caught wind of that change by now and steve wouldn't seem like such an aberration. But only time will tell, I guess.
BTW, Screed, I was never able to get ahold of JT, but have heard that he's back in class this semester. Did you ever get that mess sorted out?