It is hard to generalize I think a lot of retakers particularly second time ones likely perform much better on their second attempt. If a student took the July exam and did not pass by 5 points they had sufficient knowledge to pass the first time, but just missed it and if they have another six months to study the same material their score will likely be exponentially higher. In addition to that many law school May graduates wait until February of the next year to take the exam to provide them with an additional time to study, which gives them an additional edge. On top of that the reality is any student will know some areas of the law extremely well and not others and the California Bar Exam does not test half the subjects on the essays that you study for it is purely at random. You could have essays on Civil Procedure, Contracts, Con Law, Corporations, Wills & Trusts and Community Property in July. Then in Feb you could have essays on Property, Criminal Procedure, Evidence, Corporations, Torts & Remedies and Criminal Law. If you knew evidence and criminal law and procedure well you would probably get by with medicority on Torts, Property, and Corporations. However, if you took the July exam and only Crim Law, Crim, Pro, and Evidence really well those would not have been tested and your mediocre understanding of the other subjects would be insufficient to pass. Bottom line I think there is luck involved with the bar exam and in addition each person has their own unique situation it is a test and each person will handle the pressures of the exam in their own unique way, and I do not think it can be quantified.
I agree that there is a lower pass rate and thus "harder" on paper but I guess what I'm asking is this.Since the average taker is a retaker (who statistically do worse) and/or a foreign trained attorney (same type of stats) wouldn't that lower the curve for the otherwise average person?For example, if I showed up to a class in Algebra that was filled with remedial math students that was on the curve I'd get an A even though I am most likely not an A student in math otherwise.That is the angle I was looking at it from.
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