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NWCU by the numbers

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law_dog:
At present there are in the neighborhood of 600 students enrolled at NWCU school of law.  About 300 are 1L.

In 2011, 152 took the FYLSE for the first time. 31 passed. 72 took the FYLSE for the second time. 27 passed. 224 students took the FYLSE in 2011. 58 students passed the FYLSE in 2011.

If you're willing to accept an inference or two, then I'll take a stab at drawing a few conclusions. If yours are different than mine, I'd love to hear them. I'm not a rocket scientist.

First assumption: Since there are about 300 1L's today, there were 300 1L's between 2010 and 2011, give or take.

First question: if two-thirds of the 1L's took the baby bar for the first or second time in 2011, what happened to the other third, more or less?

First conclusion: The 1L attrition rate is between 35% and 50%. This isn't really surprising. 

Second question: if only 58 of 224 FYLSE takers passed ( 25%), what became of the 166 who failed?

Second conclusion: Given the number of second time takers is half that of first timers, half of those who fail the first time give up and leave, becoming the remainder of  1L attrition. The rest become repeat takers. 83 first time fails + 75 that dropped before taking the FYLSE= 150+/-, divided into 300 equals 50%.

Second assumption: The population of 2, 3 and 4L's is also about 300, give or take.

In 2012, 26 graduates took the bar for the first time. 5 passed. 55 retook the bar. 10 passed. 81 graduates took the bar in 2012. 15 became lawyers.

Second conclusion: The attrition rate after 1L is much lower. Neither is this terribly surprising.

Third conclusion: Given that the 15 graduates who became lawyers in 2012 were once among a 1L class of 300, the odds of a new 1L becoming a lawyer are 15 in 300, or 5%. I'll bet these 15 lawyers could have succeeded at any ABA law school, but that's just speculation.

Back to the 1L's. If you accept the facts as I have proposed them, every year about 150 1L's hand over $3000 to NWSCU and leave empty handed. That adds up to $450,000 a year.  If every one of the remaining 300 1L's goes on to graduate, they will have paid a total of another $2,700,000 over another 3 years, but only 15 become lawyers. The remaining 285 leave with a JD from an unaccredited correspondence school.

But let's focus on the positive. First, 15 new lawyers each paid just $12,000 for law school. And if they find jobs, it'll be worth every penny. Could you say that our winners are subsidized on the backs of a great many losers? OK. But hey, NWCU school of law, winner, winner, chicken dinner! Jackpot. $1,800,000 a year in revenues. You don't think this business model has great margins? Think again. I know. I'm a 1L.

At NWCU school of law, 1L's had better be prepared to fail alone, and on their own. 1L's interact with 1P. One instructor for 300 1L's, that is. He got his law degree from, wait for itNWCU school of law. There are actually a total of 11 members of the faculty. I have no idea what the other 10 do.

Did I make a mistake choosing NWCU? Maybe. On the other hand I don't intend to become a lawyer, so I'm sure to succeed here!

DeltaBravoKS:
Thanks for the interesting observations.  Not everyone believes education is a business, but when it boils down to it, almost everything is run to some degree by bean counters.

Please keep us posted on your progress.

jonlevy:
Where did you get the statistic 600 student at NWCU Law?

That seems extremely high.  Are you sure you read those stats right?

law_dog:
You're asking me if I can read?

jonlevy:
June 2012 FYLSE has 31 NWCU First timers taking it and 69 total
http://admissions.calbar.ca.gov/Portals/4/documents/Statistics/Junefylsxstats2012_R.pdf

October 2011 - 31 First Timers from NWCU and 74 total
http://admissions.calbar.ca.gov/Portals/4/documents/fyx/FylsxStatsOct2011.pdf

June 2011 41 FT and 78 total
http://admissions.calbar.ca.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=I4HxJJNgGJE%3d&tabid=2269&mid=3159

Given that many of these students were stalled and only a third passed - the ongoing enrollment at NWCU is likely less than 200.

The ones that can't get by the FYLSE exam don't count.  The First Timer total would seem to reflect an annual enrollment of of under 100 new students a year even counting the wash outs that don't make it to the FYLSE.

No way the NWCU is collecting tuition at an annual rate of 600 students.

Bottom line, may will try but few succeed because most are unqualified to pass a simple exam.

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