LSAC calculator accurate?

[Ryans5]

Hi all. I have a 3.85 GPA and a 151 LSAT (first try). The best advice is to re-take, which I am in December, however I am not going to apply to schools based upon what I could get. I have no delusions that I'm going to top programs with this current score but I am wondering if I am sitting at the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th tier marker. I've been using LSAC.org to calculate my chances and there are several programs (Chapman, Miami, Florida International, Louisville, UNM, Michigan State) that I have a 40-60% chance of getting into, which isn't too bad to me because I wouldn't mind going to any of those places. Still it seems odd to me my chances are even that high at these places as I am well below their average LSAT score. I do have a much higher than average gpa at some schools, but as we all know that pales in comparison to the LSAT. Is this calculator a reliable gauge?

[FalconJimmy]

I think you fall into the category of a splitter (one score high, one score low.)  Apparently, it isn't as good as a predictor for splitters. 

I had a 3.0/159 and that would have put me in the 35th percentile or so of admitted students at CWRU according to the calculator, but I was denied admission outright.

Take it for what you will, but I don't think it's as predictive when your gpa and lsat aren't aligned well with each other.

[Ryans5]

I would be extremely wary if there was only one school that I desired acceptance to giving me a 30-75% however there are around 8. Statistically I should be able to get into at least one. My issue is that the difference between a 151 and a 153-155 (my predicted improvement) is not going to be winning me any scholarships, nor will it dramatically increase my chances (10-20%) in some cases. I'm still going for the re-take but I believe my mindset on where I can get into can basically remain the same as I highly doubt I'll be hitting the upper 150s.

I don't feel like my score kills me on most 90+ ranked schools, but I do think it makes my acceptance a coin toss. Still, if you toss a coin eight times it is highly likely one time it will come up heads at least once.

[FalconJimmy]

I don't feel like my score kills me on most 90+ ranked schools, but I do think it makes my acceptance a coin toss. Still, if you toss a coin eight times it is highly likely one time it will come up heads at least once.

I'd say your plan is realistic and you stand a high chance of success.