I'd apply everywhere you want to go. I think you've got a great shot at any school in the country. I really
liked HLS and would recomended it
Not to be presumptuous, but HLS BLSA is very active and cool. I'm white and still attended several of their events
I've never really been one for safety-schools or backup plans, but that's me. Going into the app process I expected my priorities would be UVA-Chicago (tie) > Stanford-Harvard (tie), after more research and visits everywhere I decided on HLS and have been quite happy with that. I'm pretty sure I'd have been happy at the others as well. I'd have gotten a better tan at Stanford, graduated with minimal debt from UVA and dunno how life would differ if I'd gone to Chicago.