Interesting range of responses, but perhaps not surprising.
Certainly some good schools will cut you right away, but if your data sample is representative, you have a reasonable shot at one of the top schools. And one, after all, is all that is required.
One suggestion: To the extent cash is short, start saving up for multiple seat deposits. I tend to agree that waitlisting is likely, and you will probably still be on some waitlists long after the deposit cutoff dates for other schools, so plan on buying a couple of spots.
(Waitlists are funny things. I was accepted to a school a week after classes had begun at the school I was attending.)