I think some of you are being a bit presumptuous. A URM's chances for admission at any T-14 are just about the same across the board; either he's a good candidate or he's not...period.
Admissions is a much wilder game for URM's (especially African-Americans and Native-Americans/Indians).
Because "soft" factors are actually "hard" for them, it's much more difficult to predict which schools will want them, particularly when talking about top schools, b/c they intuitively place differenct weights on the intangibles.
At Duke and Harvard, for example, a URM's having overcome severe impoverishment might be worth 10-12 points on the LSAT,raising a 158 LSAT scorer to 168-170 (well within range for admission with $$$ at any top school), or a 163 to 173-175 (an automatic admit with $$$ at any school).
There's no real science to it, so i can see how a URM candidate might underestimate his chances of getting into Harvard. Besides, there are students every year who turn down Harvard to go to schools like Northwestern, Penn, Columbia, UVA, etc. Many of you may not want to believe this, but not everybody needs to drop "H-Bombs" for the rest of their lives to be or feel successful.