Better than if you don't.
Nobody can quantify your odds, especially this year. But when it comes to waitlists, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. Numbers do still matter; but by the time they look at the wait list, their primary concern is picking students who will enroll if admitted. If they're your first choice, tell them. If you know an RW alumnus, ask him to write a letter on your behalf. Convince them that you're an easy "yes" and they'll be more likely to call you than someone with comparable numbers who hasn't kept in touch. (And you'd be surprised how many applicants don't.)
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