i'm sure this both very school- and market-specific. at my school pretty much everyone i know was able to get the kind of job they pursued whether it was a judicial externship, a firm job, public interest, public sector, research assistantship - whatever. (but you'll notice almost all of the types of jobs i listed pay little to nothing. however, public interest / public sector jobs will be funded via a school fellowship.)
at this point i think very few 1Ls (here) don't know what they're doing this summer. of course, firm jobs are still challenging to get, but like i said everyone who really wanted to work for a private firm has ended up with such an offer.
but we're all definitely scared shirtless of OCIP, which is coming up way sooner than anyone really wants to think about.