PT 54, LR Section 4, questions 20-21

[athena376]

Hi everyone, sorry if this is a repeat question, but I didn't see much about this PT on the board. I got these questions wrong in the second LR section:

20) I understand why B-E are incorrect (they're kind of sucky answers generally), what I don't quite understand is why A is correct (ie I didn't like ANY of the answers when I was answering this question). If the meteorologist's station forecasts rain more often then how does this strengthen the argument? Couldn't they just be forecasting rain constantly?

21) For some reason, answer E matched my pre-phrase exactly. Why is this answer incorrect and why is C correct? I don't see at ALL how indicating the they were less inclined to be influenced resolves the inaccurate at first/accurate second paradox.

Any input is definitely appreciated! Thanks!

[Lindbergh]

Feel free to PM me the Q.

[BarryLaine]

I believe it says they also are correct more often in their rain predictions...which means that the other stations, more then they do, don't warn people of rain when it does in fact rain...

I'm going by memory here..

[killi]

actually for 20 TCR (A) states that they forecast rain more often, it doesnt state correct.

the rason it is the correct choice is because otherwise, what if they claimed they were wrong only one day?  sounds great right?  what if they only forecasted 4 days and got 3 right?  doesnt really bolster the argument that they are more useful and reliable.  if they forecasted 190/200 (95%) and the other stations forecasted less then them AND were less reliable, that definitely stengthens the argument (example 80/100 for 80%)  so a higher reliability AND more forecasts equal stengthened argument that they are more useful/reliable

as for 21.

if the first group responded to the questions with greater accuracy to begin with, but changed none of their answers, they had the same percentage of accuracy/inaccuracy.  however, if group B were very inaccurate then flipflopped, they could then be MORE accurate.  anothernumber example

if there were 10 questions, and A were wrong on 4, right on 6, thats 60% on both lines of questioning. if the B group flip flopped, they would be say 20% then 80% from A to B, right in line with the choice C.