My general view is that outside the top 14-25 schools, it's really all about location. In other words, if you don't get into a "top" (not top-tier) program, you should just go to the best possible school in your desired region. This is because most schools are in fact relatively regional in terms of placement and reputation, and a solid 2nd tier (or even 3rd tier) school may place as well (or better) in that region as a more distant first-tier school.
And the reason for that, as you imply, is that local connections, networking, etc., all become more important outside of the top schools, especially for non-biglaw jobs.