Law School Discussion

Fall 2009 Chances

Re: Fall 2009 Chances
« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2008, 02:36:28 PM »
Quote
I'm curious how representative LSN really is?  After all, if you look at the number of admits for a given school it always adds up to much less than the size of the entering class.  And that's the admits, not the attending, I'm talking about.  Did anybody else notice this?

Look. It's a self-selecting sample of highly motivated and/or neurotic law school applicants. For people with a 2.5/140, they're not going to have a lot of sets to compare themselves against. If you've got a 3.6/170, you probably will.

Secondly, most people, and by extension, most law school applicants, tend to think that they're special, and that they have something super great that sets them apart. The truth is, most people, most law school applicants, are average. That law firm internship or that SUPER FANTASTIC letter of recommendation you think will set you apart will not. If you see on LSN that 0/150 people within your range were accepted into School X, don't try to convince yourself that LSN isn't representative and that you have that special spark that will get you in.

Trust LSN to a reasonable extent, depending on the number of datasets that fall into your range. Don't dismiss it, especially if it's telling you something you don't want to hear.

CTL

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Re: Fall 2009 Chances
« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2008, 03:34:56 PM »
Quote
I'm curious how representative LSN really is?  After all, if you look at the number of admits for a given school it always adds up to much less than the size of the entering class.  And that's the admits, not the attending, I'm talking about.  Did anybody else notice this?

Look. It's a self-selecting sample of highly motivated and/or neurotic law school applicants. For people with a 2.5/140, they're not going to have a lot of sets to compare themselves against. If you've got a 3.6/170, you probably will.

Secondly, most people, and by extension, most law school applicants, tend to think that they're special, and that they have something super great that sets them apart. The truth is, most people, most law school applicants, are average. That law firm internship or that SUPER FANTASTIC letter of recommendation you think will set you apart will not. If you see on LSN that 0/150 people within your range were accepted into School X, don't try to convince yourself that LSN isn't representative and that you have that special spark that will get you in.

Trust LSN to a reasonable extent, depending on the number of datasets that fall into your range. Don't dismiss it, especially if it's telling you something you don't want to hear.

TITCR. 

LSN was an eerily accurate predictor of my admission cycle last year.  The only wild card that LSN has difficulty pinning down completely is URM status.  Since its importance varies from school to school, and its significance in one's application varies from candidate to candidate, it is hard to account for its affect on one's application.  However, IMO one's status as an URM is playing a decreasingly positive impact on one's application.

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Re: Fall 2009 Chances
« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2008, 10:21:58 PM »
Quote
I'm curious how representative LSN really is?  After all, if you look at the number of admits for a given school it always adds up to much less than the size of the entering class.  And that's the admits, not the attending, I'm talking about.  Did anybody else notice this?

Look. It's a self-selecting sample of highly motivated and/or neurotic law school applicants. For people with a 2.5/140, they're not going to have a lot of sets to compare themselves against. If you've got a 3.6/170, you probably will.

Secondly, most people, and by extension, most law school applicants, tend to think that they're special, and that they have something super great that sets them apart. The truth is, most people, most law school applicants, are average. That law firm internship or that SUPER FANTASTIC letter of recommendation you think will set you apart will not. If you see on LSN that 0/150 people within your range were accepted into School X, don't try to convince yourself that LSN isn't representative and that you have that special spark that will get you in.

Trust LSN to a reasonable extent, depending on the num14ber of datasets that fall into your range. Don't dismiss it, especially if it's telling you something you don't want to hear.

I'm not particularly disliking what LSN is telling me, but there is an obvious contradiction in your assessment of those who post as neurotic, self-centered egomaniacs and the site's alleged representativeness.  It is the
"self-selectedness" of the sample that makes the stats unrepresentative.  For example, I'm confident that there are people who are shy or, mistakenly, embarrassed with their results, who won't post on LSN.  Or, someone who simply doesn't bother. 

We don't know what their stats really are, however, let's do some math: 170 (which for the purposes of full disclosure happens to be my score) is in the 98th percentile.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but roughly 40K people take LSAT each time.  Let's assume, that all four administrations of the test count towards a given year's admission cycle.   This means that roughly 2400 people with 170 or better compete for roughly 2800 spots in T14 (assuming 200 on average per school).  Naturally, quite a few opt for schools outside of T14 for various reasons, which means that quite a few with less than 170 get into T14.

This is somewhat quick and dirty, but I believe quite representative, nonetheless.  It is also quite different from what LSN tells us.

Re: Fall 2009 Chances
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2008, 11:52:09 PM »
you'll never get into Law School.  You might as well give up.

Re: Fall 2009 Chances
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2008, 09:10:12 PM »
That it's self-selected on that basis makes it less likely X/Y numbers will get you in, not more.  There are folks not on LSN who put together great applications and have a litany of activities, awards, jobs and so forth, of course, but it's a fair bet that most of the folks on LSN put together great applications and have a litany of activities, awards, jobs and so forth. 

People use LSN as evidence that it's a numbers game and it is, but only insofar as numbers are qualifying or disqualifying.  Most of the people on LSN have good softs.  They get in where there numbers would predict.  Very few non-URMs, non-Peace Corps/Rhodes/Teach for America folks outperform their numbers, but a fair few underperform their numbers.  The likeliest explanation is that they don't have good softs.

So yeah, LSN is not perfectly representative, but the truth is probably less optimistic, not more.