Hypothetical October Suprize

[WashLaw]

So I've been thinking recently how interesting it would be if a SCOTUS justice (most likely Stevens because he's the oldest) suddenly died in October.
1. this would be right at the beginning of the term and would throw the whole term off.
2. It would have a HUGE impact on the election as there will be huge drama about what will follow.
So what do you think? Will Bush nominate someone and try to get him confirmed? Or will he give the job to the next president? If so, how will this affect the election?

Feel free to argue with me but here's how I see it: Bush will yield to the next pres. The ball would then be in McCain's court. If he makes it VERY clear that he will appoint a conservative, textualist justice, he will finally get the support of the conservative base which severely mistrusts him. If, on the other hand, he seems to waiver, this will provide Conservatives all the more reason to stay home or vote 3rd party, guaranteeing an Obama win.


Note: I doub this will happen, but we're future law students, we do hypothetical right? 

[sheltron5000]

I would be surprised if Bush didn't try for a nomination. Naturally the senate would then be all a shambles while conservatives turn out in record numbers to make sure the senate has enough republicans to prevent a filibuster if mccain wins, and to sway the vote if obama wins. At the same time democrats would have serious problems looking petty if they tried to block a vote on the nomination, and it would probably hurt obama by association.

So I agree with your assessment, but I think it would also affect the senate races. Mccain's response probably be the determining factor, from what we've seen so far though, I bet he would bumble any such october surprise.

Though that would all depend on how the "liberal" media spins it...

(personally, I have a dream of obama winning and then scalia and stevens resigning at the end of the next session...)

[sinkfloridasink]

Naturally the senate would then be all a shambles while conservatives turn out in record numbers to make sure the senate has enough republicans to prevent a filibuster if mccain wins, and to sway the vote if obama wins.

Aren't all the indications pointing the opposite way? The way the Senate race polling is going, the Dems are looking likely to pick up anywhere from 2-6 seats in the Senate, and even more in the House.

[WashLaw]

I would be surprised if Bush didn't try for a nomination. Naturally the senate would then be all a shambles while conservatives turn out in record numbers to make sure the senate has enough republicans to prevent a filibuster if mccain wins, and to sway the vote if obama wins. At the same time democrats would have serious problems looking petty if they tried to block a vote on the nomination, and it would probably hurt obama by association.

So I agree with your assessment, but I think it would also affect the senate races. Mccain's response probably be the determining factor, from what we've seen so far though, I bet he would bumble any such october surprise.

Though that would all depend on how the "liberal" media spins it...

(personally, I have a dream of obama winning and then scalia and stevens resigning at the end of the next session...)

1. Yeah, I think Bush is really the wild card in this regard. I certainly could see him trying to make an 11th hour appointment, I could also see him not doing anything specifically in order to make it a campaign issues in hopes of helping McCain.
2. McCain I think might actually pull this one off. If, as you say, Dems try to filibuster, McCain has an easy shot at his opponent and will win over the conservatives. That said he has a knack for pissing off Conservatives with judicial issues, maybe I'm giving him too much credit.
3. Hadn't thought about the senate races, but I think hat will be a factor too. a filibuster would hurt the dems. They'd maintain the lead and maybe gain a few seats still, but not as much as they could have. 
4. my dream is opposite, I had really hoped for a Stevens resignation at some point in the last 2 years, thereby creating the Senate Fight of the Century. But hey, I'm a Conservative. As to your dream: I can see Stevens retiring in Obama's first term, but maybe not as soon as you might like. Scalia will absolutely not resign (but I'm sure you knew that).

[sheltron5000]

One can dream...

[Julie Fern]

oct. surprise = mcsame's prostate not exploding.

[Bleedingblue]

oct. surprise = mcsame's prostate not exploding.

Never ceases to amaze me the jabs that Mccain takes for his age, but if someone were to take shot about the Obama "difference", that person would be out of line.    mmmm Just a thought

[sheltron5000]

only if the "difference" you are talking about is his race. You can make all the jokes about "change you can believe in" you want.

[Julie Fern]

oct. surprise = mcsame's prostate not exploding.

Never ceases to amaze me the jabs that Mccain takes for his age, but if someone were to take shot about the Obama "difference", that person would be out of line. mmmm Just a thought

race not make you less qualified be president.  age, at some point, do.  mcsame reach there already.  or, he could just be stuid.  julie have open mind.

[Julie Fern]

only if the "difference" you are talking about is his race. You can make all the jokes about "change you can believe in" you want.

she meant big ears.