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Author Topic: why obama win  (Read 16781 times)

Julie Fern

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #250 on: September 23, 2008, 08:24:13 AM »
certainly no one like you.

Elephant Lee

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #251 on: September 23, 2008, 01:24:32 PM »
This post is really f-ing stupid.  Too stupid to be quoted, even. 
I thought you were going to call it stupid based on his assumption that no one had though of or dealt with the problem with poll modeling before. For instance:

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-timespollmethod,0,6786437.story

Now, different firms use slightly different techniques--which is one reason they get different results. This idea that polls have no predictive value, however, is nonsense. RealClearPolitics predicted 49 states correctly in 2004 by aggregating poll results. Both parties do their own polling so that they know where they stand, etc.

I think the issue you should be looking at is that early polling data is not as valuable as late polling data. There are fewer undecideds in the later polling data.
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Julie Fern

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #252 on: September 23, 2008, 07:35:15 PM »
check out pollster.com, which average several polls.

sluglaw

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #253 on: September 23, 2008, 08:19:18 PM »
huh?  you are being mean and using way too many fallacies.

For the first time since I became aware of your existence, something you said was funny.
Congrats.  I know you try real hard.  Just know that it has paid off. 

the ad-hom.  nice opener.

Lest you get all excited and end up suicidal, try to think back to Kerry - by all accounts, he should have won in a landslide because all the liberals convinced themselves that everyone they knew were going to vote for Kerry.   Poll after poll showed Kerry ahead, pretty much throughout the election cycle.  Then the results came in - Bush won reelection fair and square.  Personally, I was destroyed.

http://www.ncpp.org/files/2004%20Election%20Polls%20Review.pdf

The polls were wrong 11% of the time, and with margin of error.  Personally- and this it a totally unscientific and skewed off the cuff analysis- I thought Kerry ran a poor campaign, was totally uncharismatic and never challenged Bush in a way that looked like it would make significant inroads in defeating an incumbent, something historically very hard to do.  Rolling over on the war, which at the time was still somewhat popular, and lacking significant domestic issues to run on, I personally was optimistic and hopeful but never really thought Kerry would win.  Some were hopeful and others resigned to a third Bush term; but as for the polls, your argument seems wrong.

Then I realized something that you should think about: Who takes polls?  I've never taken a poll.  No one I know has ever taken a poll.  My parents have never taken a poll and no one they know has ever taken a poll.  I've never met or spoken to anyone who's ever taken a poll.  What the hell kind of scam are these 'pollsters' running here?


Really?  You don't see the glaring fallacy in your poll of 'every person you have ever met' versus the professional pollers?  You think they are lying to you?  Does your burning anger at pollsters consume you to the point that you feel obligated to ask every person they meet if they have taken a poll recently?  Personally I don't know if anyone in my close family has taken a poll recently.  Saying that no one your parents know has ever taken a poll assumes that a) they asked every person they knew if they took a poll and b) they relayed that information to you.

Housewives and the unemployed.  The elderly and the disabled.  That's who takes polls.  Because those are the only people that are home when the polls are administered.  When you work all day, you don't have time to take a poll.  So how accurate are they really?  Housewives, the unemployed, and the disabled on public aid tend to skew left.

http://media.gallup.com/PDF/FAQ/HowArePolls.pdf

Wrong.  First of all, I have met plenty of disabled persons, housewives, and unemployed folks who vote for the GOP.  Secondly, pollsters are professional statisticians who develop techniques to account for such discrepancies, such as making repeat calls to the same number at different times to account for at-home patterns and make multiple calls to reduce the error of excluding certain groups based at their habits of being close to a phone at any given time.  Your guess that polls only occur 9-5 m-f is simply wrong, as is your assumption that being a working person requires you to only work those hour, because of course the economy shuts down nights and weekends.


That's why polls are so meaningless.  That's why the President of the US has a low approval rating, but when he speaks he is greeted by adoring, clapping admirers.  Because polls are nonsense.


Even if the president had say, a 10% approval rating, that is still 30 million adoring admirers ready to show up to any speaking event he makes.  The Bush-rally-attending GOP card holding loyalists are a statistical outlier and not indicative of the national mood.

Housewives don't like the president.  The unemployed blame him for being unemployed.

Huh?  How about stay-at-home moms who actually enjoy what they do and want to maintain a strong economy and national security so their husbands can continue to support them and their kids stay safe, the same moms who go to church faithfully and believe in hard work and tax cuts?  Or what about the eco-mommas who want nothing but to see an end to war and get solar panels on their roofs and healthy veggie meals at school?  But wait, I'm wrong, any made-up demographic like 'hockey mom' or 'woman' is a monolithic voting bloc.  Sorry, my bad.


My point is this - I don't underestimate the appeal of Obama to the stupid, the uneducated, and the party rabid loyalists.  Don't underestimate the appeal of McCain to the very people who see him as a hero, as someone to look up to, or as an illustration of the american dream.


It cuts both ways.  There are stupid uneducated people voting for McCain and there are others who see Obama as the American Dream as well, in addition to the legions of disgusted and widely disinterested others who will hold there noses and vote for whoever they think will screw them less (which, by my guess, is absolutely everyone).

jeffislouie

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #254 on: September 24, 2008, 03:07:25 PM »
Slug -

It's obvious you are new here (welcome).  My ad-hominem attack is well deserved.  Go read anything Julie has posted anywhere if you want to see a definition of ad-hominem.  What I wrote was less an attack than a compliment.

So you know people who have participated in polls?  Yes or no.  I still haven't spoken to anyone that has actually participated.  I am surrounded by professionals - mostly lawyers.  Not one has taken part in a poll.  I used to work at a fortune 500.  My team was a fair representation of the average voter - some were rich, some were poor, some had lots of education, some had little.  There were people from every background.  Of the 15 or so on that team that I used to talk politics with, none had participated in a poll.  So I will say it again - polls are relatively meaningless.  They are a snapshot of a group of supposedly random people who agree to be polled and take the time to take the polls, some of which do so with malicious intent to skew the numbers.  Scott Rasmussen was interviewed by a local talk host and he said 'even the a-holes should be represented'.

Don't make the mistake of interpreting my message as being anti-poll.  It isn't.  But like Scott Rasmussen, I understand that polls are a glimpse into a possibility and in no way are actual reliable predictors of anything.  Polls are random.  Some (i would wager quite a few) take the poll with either an intent to skew them or simply don't actually vote.

The economy DOESN'T shut down nights and weekends.  But the average single 9-5 employee is at work during the day.  When they get home, most don't want to talk to pollsters.  If you want to look at polls to try and predict trends or to try and see how a random group feels, that's okay.  But it is clearly more intelligent to view those polls with a grain of salt.  The most important poll we know of is the actual election, which as we both agree is relatively unpredictable.

My theory about housewives is that they tend to skew liberal.  Most of us have priority issues.  Some of us are single issue voters.  The appeal to the lazy for Obama is palpable - he gets the most positive coverage and many in the media have decided to glorify his holiness and attack McCain.  The fact is that many of us simply don't think the media has given McCain a fair shake.  They pretend that they are hard on Palin because they feel it is important to vet candidates.  Unfortunately for them, the facts bear out that these same media outlets all but refuse to vet Obama - to this day.  Obama coverage tends to be favorable, forgiving, and chock full of spin while McCain coverage tends to be critical, harsh, and negative.

The NYT printed a column by Obama which contained no preconditions.  When McCain responded with his own column, all of a sudden preconditions existed.  The NYT leveled unproven allegations against Sarah Palin while ignoring unproven allegations about Obama and Biden.  Hell, the NYT printed a ridiculous hit piece claiming McCain had an affair with a lobbyist.  They knew their source was crap and that the story wasn't true.  Did they print an investigation into Obama's ties with Rezko or Ayers?  Nah, they ignored it until they decided to make excuses for these stories.

And that's just the NYT.  

What about CNN's coverage of the republican convention vs. the democratic conventions?  CNN talked over speeched at the repub conventions and showed images of white people in suits.  Contrast that to the dem's convention, where they showed celebrity after celebrity and ignored the minorities who were hidden in the wings.  Then they complained about a lack of minorities at the repub convention, which they covered with an all-white male panel.

It's theater.

Polls are part of the theater.  Leaders lead.  Followers follow.  The left seems to want to follow the polls.  The right tends to resist it.

It's an observation, nothing more.  The same points are being made.  When I was SURE Kerry was going to win, I was one of those people who didn't understand how the polls showed he was up and the vote returned a different result.  Think what you want, but this thing is going to be a close one, polls be damned.

It IS interesting, however, that the polls don't reflect the enthusiasm the Obama camp claims exists.  If you listened to these folks talk about it, you'd think Obama was up 20 points.  He isn't.  We are looking at a close race.  Does that mean they are deluded?  Possibly.  It might mean that they are trying, with the media behaving like lapdogs, to convince people who don't care enough to find out for themselves that Obama is not only going to win, but the inevitable next POTUS.  Hence, when I say there is an appeal to the stupid I don't mean that true Obama supporters are stupid, but that you average American who DOESN'T care reads and hears every day that Obama is the next coming.

I live in Chicago.  I read both papers.  Neither has bothered to do much investigating of allegations regarding Obama.  Both have jumped in to criticize McCain and investigate Palin.  The media has an important role of impartial investigation to play.  Sadly, they don't care about that anymore and have chosen instead to use their positions to get Obama elected.  There is no impartial media.  Even Hillary admits that Fox news gave her the most fair and balanced coverage.  I think Fox's commentary is skewed right, but that's one station.  NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC and most newspapers tend to skew left.  So why the hubub?  Is it because they have a larger audience base?

The left thinks that the power play is to attack Palin as an awful choice.  Palin reenergized the party.  If she was such a bad choice, why is the race this close?  Because the left seems to think that she is a serious threat.  That choice undermined the faux feminism inherent to the overtly sexist democratic leadership.  Theater.

Both sides are guilty.






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Julie Fern

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #255 on: October 09, 2008, 08:11:35 AM »
all wingnuts go way?

Julie Fern

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #256 on: October 15, 2008, 05:00:39 PM »
because he going get more votes?

Julie Fern

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #257 on: October 19, 2008, 08:57:50 AM »
how about $150 million raised in sept.?

Julie Fern

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #258 on: October 19, 2008, 03:34:53 PM »
how about colin powell?

sluglaw

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Re: why obama win
« Reply #259 on: December 04, 2008, 02:43:10 PM »
Slug -

It's obvious you are new here (welcome).  My ad-hominem attack is well deserved.  Go read anything Julie has posted anywhere if you want to see a definition of ad-hominem.  What I wrote was less an attack than a compliment.

Thanks Jeff!  Delayed response here, but yes I have read stuff by Julie since then and am now more fully aware of the need for the ad-hom.  Obnoxious trolls get no love from me.


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So you know people who have participated in polls?  Yes or no.  I still haven't spoken to anyone that has actually participated.  I am surrounded by professionals - mostly lawyers.  Not one has taken part in a poll.  I used to work at a fortune 500.  My team was a fair representation of the average voter - some were rich, some were poor, some had lots of education, some had little.  There were people from every background.  Of the 15 or so on that team that I used to talk politics with, none had participated in a poll.  So I will say it again - polls are relatively meaningless.  They are a snapshot of a group of supposedly random people who agree to be polled and take the time to take the polls, some of which do so with malicious intent to skew the numbers.  Scott Rasmussen was interviewed by a local talk host and he said 'even the a-holes should be represented'.

Yes, I actually do know people who have taken polls.  The point about your small group of 15 people almost reinforces the idea of why polls can work even if they don't reach every person in America, even indirectly- because a small group can be representative of the larger population.  That's how statistics work and what makes polls accurate.  You don't need to be personally connected to a poll for a poll to be able to find a sample demographic similar to yours.  In a country of over 300 million people it is likely that the vast majority will not be polled, but a good professional pollster will be able to still get good results anyways.

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Don't make the mistake of interpreting my message as being anti-poll.  It isn't.  But like Scott Rasmussen, I understand that polls are a glimpse into a possibility and in no way are actual reliable predictors of anything.  Polls are random.  Some (i would wager quite a few) take the poll with either an intent to skew them or simply don't actually vote.

The economy DOESN'T shut down nights and weekends.  But the average single 9-5 employee is at work during the day.  When they get home, most don't want to talk to pollsters.  If you want to look at polls to try and predict trends or to try and see how a random group feels, that's okay.  But it is clearly more intelligent to view those polls with a grain of salt.  The most important poll we know of is the actual election, which as we both agree is relatively unpredictable.

I will agree with your general sentiment here, that polls should be taken with a grain of salt- but disagree with your conclusion that the general election itself is completely unpredictable.  Trends can be seen in the electorate at large and with enough data a very accurate prediction can be made in advance, ie: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-and-final-election.html
Granted a lot of other predictors got it wrong, but most polls I saw before the election were pretty close to accurate with regards to the final results.

Quote
My theory about housewives is that they tend to skew liberal.  Most of us have priority issues.  Some of us are single issue voters.  The appeal to the lazy for Obama is palpable - he gets the most positive coverage and many in the media have decided to glorify his holiness and attack McCain.  The fact is that many of us simply don't think the media has given McCain a fair shake.  They pretend that they are hard on Palin because they feel it is important to vet candidates.  Unfortunately for them, the facts bear out that these same media outlets all but refuse to vet Obama - to this day.  Obama coverage tends to be favorable, forgiving, and chock full of spin while McCain coverage tends to be critical, harsh, and negative.

From an outsiders perspective I can say that Obama ran an objectively better campaign, was better at damage control, more responsive to the media, and had a better message from the start.  Obama had a larger share of the spotlight from the beginning due to the extended length of the democratic primary.  Since 2006 it has been nearly a foregone conclusion that the 08 race was the democrats to lose, and Obama naturally came in with a very large lead that was expanded by the collapsing economy and floundering McCain campaign (I like McCain and still think he ran one of the worst general election campaigns I've seen).  More than anything the media is horse-race driven, the guy who is ahead on the polls will get a natural boost in coverage, not to mention who has a better handle on the media, will by default be received better in the media.  The media was hard on Palin because she is an easy target, an inexperienced unknown who made mistake after mistake yet still received enormous accolades after making an acceptance speech at the convention that in my view was simply average and really nothing more than a mash-up of all the standard attack lines of the GOP to date.  Add to that the first-black-president angle and a skew in coverage is all but inevitable.  Go back to 2004 and you will see that both Kerry and Dean got piled on by the media because they ran horrible campaigns and made very large public relations mistakes, respectively, and were trashed by a well run campaign by W.  There are real palpable reasons for the things you are complaining about, you need to look past conspiracy theories to get your answers.

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The NYT printed a column by Obama which contained no preconditions.  When McCain responded with his own column, all of a sudden preconditions existed.  The NYT leveled unproven allegations against Sarah Palin while ignoring unproven allegations about Obama and Biden.  Hell, the NYT printed a ridiculous hit piece claiming McCain had an affair with a lobbyist.  They knew their source was crap and that the story wasn't true.  Did they print an investigation into Obama's ties with Rezko or Ayers?  Nah, they ignored it until they decided to make excuses for these stories.

And that's just the NYT.

Yes, and Fox News ran piece after piece about Ayers, frequently mixed up Obama/Osama and generally trashed his campaign the whole way.  It shouldn't come as a surprise that the mainstays of ideological reporting report along the lines of their ideologies.

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What about CNN's coverage of the republican convention vs. the democratic conventions?  CNN talked over speeched at the repub conventions and showed images of white people in suits.  Contrast that to the dem's convention, where they showed celebrity after celebrity and ignored the minorities who were hidden in the wings.  Then they complained about a lack of minorities at the repub convention, which they covered with an all-white male panel.

It's theater.

Polls are part of the theater.  Leaders lead.  Followers follow.  The left seems to want to follow the polls.  The right tends to resist it.

All the coverage I saw of both events tried to focus on minorities and people in the crowds.  It just so happens that the GOP is far more white and homogenous than the democratic party.  And they weren't wearing suits, it was bucket hats with oil rigs on them.  Durr.  It is also well known that there are more celebrities in the democratic party than the GOP- esp this year with Barackstar.

Yes politics is theater.  Yes the media is compliant, hypocritical, and absurdly easy to dupe (think Charlie Brown versus the football).  Yes the GOP has been consistently better at shaping public opinion than the democrats.  So?  This doesn't at all support the notion that polls are inaccurate.  You are making a lot of disconnected points that don't support your thesis.


Quote
It's an observation, nothing more.  The same points are being made.  When I was SURE Kerry was going to win, I was one of those people who didn't understand how the polls showed he was up and the vote returned a different result.  Think what you want, but this thing is going to be a close one, polls be damned.

Click on the link I posted above.  The polls were accurate in 04 and generally predicted Kerry's loss.  JK was boring as all heck and impossible to listen to.  I remember hearing him speak during the World Series and my oh my was it bad.  He was unresponsive and stiff- remember Swift Boat?  If he had spine or passion he would have blasted that to hell, some rich GOP backer trashing a decorate Vietnam vet in support of a son-of-an-oilman chicken hawk?  Kerry rolled over and took it.  Kerry also voted to authorize use of force against Iraq and never made a clear differntiation between himself and Bush on war policy.  He failed to get anyone excited about voting for him.  He was just about as exciting as the ketchup that propelled him to the Senate. If you really thought he was going to win you must have been living with your head in the ground.  I also think it is laughable that you thought this election would defy the polls and be close, when it turned out to be on of the swiftest and cleanest elections in a while, it was pretty much done before polls on the West Coast closed.