Law School Discussion

Why Obama will lose in the fall

Julie Fern

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1160 on: October 23, 2008, 08:00:48 AM »


"Nearly 2 million are military veterans, and McCain has built a base of support from the western Panhandle to Jacksonville in the northeast, home to big bases. McCain counts on the largely Republican retirees of the Gulf Coast and southwestern Florida, and on a strong majority of the Cuban-American vote around Miami."


well, there problem:  trib talking about what mcsame say, and that never accurate.

Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1161 on: October 23, 2008, 09:18:39 PM »

...aye beg to differ with regarding the cuban vote in the very important "swing state"...

but why listen to me, who has spit out the "cult of personality" koolaide...

and then again this thing is already wrapping up for obama...he has selected the paint for the oval office...


excerpt from mark silva...

chicago tribune


"Nearly 2 million are military veterans, and McCain has built a base of support from the western Panhandle to Jacksonville in the northeast, home to big bases. McCain counts on the largely Republican retirees of the Gulf Coast and southwestern Florida, and on a strong majority of the Cuban-American vote around Miami."

...the vise is closing on table...plumb and square...florida is tapering...





This is the strategy for every Republican to run in Florida. Just because the whacko's in the Panhandle vote McCain doesn't mean he'll win. Read the polls.

Thistle

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1162 on: October 23, 2008, 09:20:30 PM »
he doesnt believe in polls

Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1163 on: October 23, 2008, 09:37:44 PM »
he doesnt believe in polls

i don't believe in bdub.

Thistle

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1164 on: October 23, 2008, 09:44:46 PM »
he doesnt believe in polls

i don't believe in bdub.


if enough of us stop believing in him, will he cease to exist?

Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1165 on: October 23, 2008, 09:51:04 PM »
if enough of us stop believing in him, will he cease to exist?

i think that's how it works, yes.

Julie Fern

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1166 on: October 24, 2008, 07:09:44 AM »
he doesnt believe in polls

nor even in poles.

although he do like turds. and goats.

Julie Fern

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1167 on: October 24, 2008, 07:10:50 AM »
he doesnt believe in polls

i don't believe in bdub.


if enough of us stop believing in him, will he cease to exist?

no, much like polyvinylchloride.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1168 on: October 25, 2008, 12:40:36 AM »
he doesnt believe in polls

just the four out of five dentists surveyed recommendations.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #1169 on: October 25, 2008, 12:43:07 AM »
                                        The Jerusalem Post



Oct 24, 2008 0:39 | Updated Oct 24, 2008 15:58


Column one: Testing Obama's mettle


By CAROLINE GLICK

In a week and a half, American voters will elect the next US president. Their decision will impact the entire world.

Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama now enjoys a significant lead in the polls against Republican presidential candidate Senator John McCain. For McCain to win, a lot of Obama supporters will need to reassess their choice for president. This week, Obama's running-mate Senator Joseph Biden gave Obama supporters a good reason to change their minds.

In much-reported remarks to campaign donors in Seattle on Sunday, Biden warned that if Obama is elected to the White House, it will take America's adversaries no time at all to test him. In his words, "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama…. The world is looking…. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate."

Biden then continued, "And he's gonna need help….We're gonna need you to use your influence…within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

Many commentators have minimized the importance of Biden's remarks by claiming that all new leaders are tested. But this is not exactly correct. World leaders test their adversaries when they perceive them as weak. When Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected US president in 1952, the Soviet Union did not move quickly to test the man who had led Allied Forces in World War II. When Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980, the Iranian regime released the US hostages it had held for a year and a half.

In speaking as he did, Biden essentially acknowledged three things. First, he recognized that Obama projects an image of weakness and naiveté internationally that invite America's adversaries to challenge him.

 

Second, by stating that if Obama is tested a crisis will ensue, Biden made clear that Obama will fail the tests he is handed as a newly inaugurated president. After all, when an able leader is tested, he acts wisely and secures his nation's interests while averting a crisis.

Finally, Biden made clear that Obama's failure will be widely noted, and hence, "it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

IN LIGHT of Biden's dire warning about his running-mate, the central question that Americans ought to be asking themselves is whether or not Biden is correct. Is it true that Obama projects a posture of weakness and incompetence internationally and is it likely that this posture reflects reality?

Unfortunately, it appears that Biden knows exactly what he is talking about.

Take Iran for example. Obama has stated outright that if he is elected US president he will offer to conduct direct negotiations with his Iranian counterpart President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad without preconditions. Yet two weeks ago, the Iranians made clear that their dispute with America is not about who occupies the White House, but about the nature of the US.

Speaking to the official Iranian news service IRNA, Iranian Vice President for Media Affairs Mehdi Kalhor stipulated that Iran will only agree to meet with a US leader after America has bowed to Teheran's will. In his words, Iran will refuse to hold such high-level talks "for as long as US forces have not left the Middle East region, and [the US] continues its support for the Zionist regime."

Kalhor explained, "It is stupidity to hold talks without any change in US attitudes."

After naming its price, Iran has since done its best to make its preconditions palatable for an Obama administration. This it has done by claiming that it will not attack the US, it will only attack Israel.

Just after Kalhor's interview, Seyed Safavi, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told a diplomatic audience in London that Iranian leadership circles are now debating the option of attacking Israel without attacking US forces in the region. Safavi added that chances for direct negotiations between the US and Iran will increase if Obama is elected. Alluding to Kalhor's remarks, Safavi claimed that sanctions against Iran have failed and that if the US expects Iran to stop enriching uranium, it will have to take "firm and significant" steps in Iran's direction.

Then on Wednesday, in a visit to US-ally Bahrain, the speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Larijani gave Obama the regime's official endorsement. Larijani said, "We are leaning more in favor of Barack Obama because he is more flexible and rational."

Iran's pre-US election behavior indicates that Iran will waste no time testing Obama's mettle. Iran is behaving as if it fully expects Obama to do what his supporter Rev. Jesse Jackson expects him to do. That is, like Jackson, Iran expects Obama to end "Zionist control" of US foreign policy. And to aid the process, the Iranians are willing to leave US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan alone as they attack Israel with their nascent nuclear arsenal shortly after Obama is inaugurated.

In his remarks on Sunday Biden made clear that he does not believe that Obama will agree to use the US military to confront Iran or any other enemy. His rejection of the use of force is not due to a sense that force is not necessary. Rather it is due to his dim assessment of America's military capabilities. In his words, "We do not have the military capacity, nor have we ever, quite frankly, in the last 20 years, to dictate outcomes. … It's so much more complicated than that. And Barack gets it."

Given the Democratic ticket's belief that the US military is too weak to protect American interests, it could be expected that Obama and Biden would support strengthening the US military. But the opposite is the case. Obama has called for slashing the US military budget, cutting back the US's anti-missile programs and scaling back drastically the US nuclear arsenal. That is, although Obama has claimed that he will never take the option of the use of force off the table, by refusing to strengthen the US military which he perceives as weak, he is making certain that the US military option is ineffectual.