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Author Topic: Why Obama will lose in the fall  (Read 83478 times)

Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #130 on: June 09, 2008, 12:04:39 AM »
Quote from: miss p
Interestingly enough, Georgia has a higher percentage of Latinos than any of the other states you mention besides California.  NC and VA are somewhere around 6 or 7% Latino.  The others are under 5% Latino.  But whatever.  Move the goalposts all you want.  You're still pretty much full of poo.

actually Georgia is right around 5%
http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/georgia/demographic.html

so is Virginia (my bad)

http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/georgia/demographic.html

North Carolina is closer to 7%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html

MN is around 4%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27000.html

WI is right around 5%
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/55000.html

so actually GA is in the same boat as the other states, except NC which has quite a few more Latinos, which is interesting since one of the articles i mentioned earlier that outlines how entrenched racism is in hispanic circles was based in NC. and the numbers of hispanics in these areas is probably higher now, since it is 8 years after the census and we have seen a steady stream of hispanic immigrants of late.



Maybe you should use the same source for all your statistics.  They're bound to be more reliable for comparison's sake.  Go here and compare the 2006 estimates: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html.

That's cool how you referenced a case.

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vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #131 on: June 09, 2008, 12:51:01 AM »


Maybe you should use the same source for all your statistics.  They're bound to be more reliable for comparison's sake.  Go here and compare the 2006 estimates: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html.


[/quote]

thanks for the tip.  i was pointing out that there are differing statistics on the exact percentage of hispanics in GA and every state.  the reason should be pretty obvious.  and yes, i think they vote too.

Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #132 on: June 09, 2008, 12:53:52 AM »
thanks for the tip.  i was pointing out that there are differing statistics on the exact percentage of hispanics in GA and every state.  the reason should be pretty obvious.  and yes, i think they vote too.

But why not use the same source for the same year (and the Census Bureau's most recent data/estimates)?  Just because they indicated I was correct?  And if the "obvious" reason is immigration, I think you have a problem since, obviously, you have to be a citizen to vote and most recent immigrants are not yet citizens.
That's cool how you referenced a case.

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pig floyd

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #133 on: June 09, 2008, 01:23:24 AM »
But why not use the same source for the same year (and the Census Bureau's most recent data/estimates)?  Just because they indicated I was correct?  And if the "obvious" reason is immigration, I think you have a problem since, obviously, you have to be a citizen to vote and most recent immigrants are not yet citizens.

Don't bring logic into this!   >:(
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vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #134 on: June 09, 2008, 02:45:57 AM »
thanks for the tip.  i was pointing out that there are differing statistics on the exact percentage of hispanics in GA and every state.  the reason should be pretty obvious.  and yes, i think they vote too.

But why not use the same source for the same year (and the Census Bureau's most recent data/estimates)?  Just because they indicated I was correct?  And if the "obvious" reason is immigration, I think you have a problem since, obviously, you have to be a citizen to vote and most recent immigrants are not yet citizens.

the census, is taken every 10 years.  so the most recent data comes from 2000. the web sites i used both claim to use official us gov. census data. so you see they both come from the same "source".  i suggest it is difficult to estimate this number because much of this demographic group moves around quite a bit.  it is naive to assume, in a country that does not require a photo ID (until the Supreme Court recently decided that IN could require a photo ID thank God but that was like a month ago), and allows people to register the same day at the polls, that there isn't a lot of precisely what you suggest going on.

pig floyd

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #135 on: June 09, 2008, 02:48:35 AM »
a country that [. . .] allows people to register the same day at the polls

Link?
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vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #136 on: June 09, 2008, 07:06:15 AM »
http://www.demos.org/page52.cfm

i don't think i need to outline which party favors this type of registration.  it is also the party that opposes any kind of identification process at the polls.  in fact in many states, like my own state of Wisconsin, all you need do is have someone vouch that you are eligible to vote.

http://www.tcf.org/list.asp?type=TN&pubid=1084

as i said, thank God states are wising up and changing laws to make photo ID's a requirement.

oh and the arch-conservative Stevens wrote for the majority.  as i alluded to above, conservatives claim that not having an ID requirement encourages fraud while liberals claim that forcing poor people to get ID's somehow disenfranchises them. it seems the court feels that a rotten election tainted by thousands of ineligible voters casting ballots is more corrosive to the democratic process than one where a few eligible voters might get turned away.obtaining an ID is simply not a difficult process. nor does it discriminate against protected classes of people.it just discriminates against people who shouldn't be voting like illegal immigrants.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/04/28/ST2008042802615.html

pig floyd

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #137 on: June 09, 2008, 11:48:48 AM »
Arrrr!  Those damn illegals ruining everything!   >:(

(I mean... estimated size of effect, if it exists, considering that actual election laws vary by state?)
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jeffislouie

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #138 on: June 09, 2008, 12:11:23 PM »
So im sure that the comment that I am going to make will be extrememely controversial but here goes...

I am not going to address the validity of your arguement directly. I think it is important to discuss the definition of racism. Most dictionaries describe racism as a prejudice against a group based on race and the definition will allude to notions of superiority vs. inferiority. I think both both aspects of the definition are oversimplified. If you look historically at manifestations of racism you will notice the component that is left out of the definition. POWER!! So is it truly black racism, or racist asians, or latinos? Can they truly be racist because they lack the power to oppress another group at this point in time? Or are they simply prejudice?

Just something to consider...enjoy the rest of your discussion.

Many populist marxist professors try to teach that an element of racism is power.  This is primarily to excuse their own hatreds and allow them to harbor their own stereotypes.  My theory is that when you hear someone who includes the concept of power with their definition of racism, they are more racist than you would like to think.
Al Sharpton is one such individual who, while fighting for a world without racism, harbors his own animosities against people other than him and believes that the black people are better than another group.  It shouldn't surprise you that Sharpton has been known to apply the concept of power to racism.  Yet he has been quoted as referring to jews as 'Hymies' (an old racist, derrogatory word used much like the n-word) and frequently has made baseless accusations against white people that later turned out to be false.
Louis Farrakhan is another so called black leader who uses the concept of power to define racism.  This is a man who believes that judaism is a gutter religion, Hitler was brilliant, and that all jews are leeches.
I have had many conversations with some of my closest black friends, some of whom believe that power is essential to racism.  My main argument is that power isn't necessary to define racism at all.  Power is merely a way to enforce racism.  Black people can be racists against whites, the japanese may be racist against the Koreans.  Latino's may hate black people and vice-versa.  To effect a large portion of the population, power is important, but to hold the belief that another race is beneath your own requires no power, only the ability to think.  And hate.
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Martin Prince, Jr.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #139 on: June 09, 2008, 02:48:44 PM »
Quote
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.

Ooooooo-K. First things first: this poll is not a poll of "Latinos in LA," but a Los Angeles Times article about multiple nationwide polls of Latinos. Second, you provide no evidence on why one cannot rely on exit polls or "pre-vote polling data" instead of your "census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis," none of which, I might add, you actually do in this thread. What the polls the LA Times cites indicate are that Latinos nationwide are moving toward the Democratic Party, which is fairly in line with what the rest of the country is doing. Now if you actually want to make the opposite argument, back it up. But don't try and distract with some meta-issue such as exit polls and pre-voting polls being unreliable due to some bizarre Wilder effect that you aren't interested in actually proving.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/03/eveningnews/main653562.shtml
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137451,00.html
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/07/senate-exit-polls-early/

exit polls are notoriously unreliable.  or did you forget the whole kerry-bush election?

Do you even read the links you cite? All of those are stories about *EARLY* exit polls, those that are released in the afternoon without all of the exit polling having been completed. The notoriety of these early polls is why networks this year (and 2006) waited until later in the evening before starting to cite data from them.

So yes, *EARLY* exit polls are bad. But that does not make *exit polls* bad. Jesus. And yeah, way to continue pushing your retarded meta-argument about exit-poll and polling reliability instead of actually addressing the flaws in the topic of your own god damn thread.
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