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Author Topic: Why Obama will lose in the fall  (Read 82622 times)

Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #110 on: June 08, 2008, 01:23:31 PM »
all-out left-winger

This is where you lost me.  Sorry, kid.
That's cool how you referenced a case.

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vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #111 on: June 08, 2008, 01:45:16 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,3458770,full.story

This is the first article that comes up in a Google search for "Obama McCain latino vote."  It cites a new poll that says Obama leads McCain 62-29 [among Latinos].  (For comparison's sake, Kerry beat Bush among Latino voters 55-44; Gore beat Bush 62-35.  Bush, of course, was another Southwestern Republican who was supposed to win Latinos because of his conciliatory tone on immigration, his associations with prominent Latino and Latin American figures like Gonzales and Fox, his stabs at Spanish-speaking, etc.)  None of the articles you cite are about an Obama-McCain matchup in the general election.



Miss P, your reply is off point.  how McCain polls against Obama with Latinos has nothing to with the prevalent anti-black bias in hispanic social circles.  Kerry and Gore were white so mentioning them is irrelevant. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202860.html

The political polarization between Latino voters and black candidates has been a virtual trademark in just about every race where a black candidate has squared off against a white or Latino candidate. In 1993, Rudolph Giuliani, a tough law and order,Republican running in heavily Democratic New York city against liberal African-American Democrat David Dinkins got nearly forty percent of the Latino vote. Nearly a decade later, Lee Brown, the former New York City police commissioner, got less than 30 percent of the Latino vote in his run-off race against Orlando Sanchez for Houston mayor. The even more popular, veteran former Congressman Ron Dellums received barely thirty percent of the Latino vote in his race for mayor in Oakland against a Latino challenger in 2005.

In each case the black candidates won their races with overwhelming support from black and substantial support from white voters. Their challengers were conservative Republicans or centrist Democrats. They actively courted the Latino voters, and even won the important endorsements of prominent Latino elected officials and business leaders. That did little to dent the vote barrier between the majority of Latinos and the black candidates.
i was merely brining up the point that Democrats do not discuss the prevalence of black, asian and hispanic racism but instead focus on institutionalized white racism.  my point is that although white racism certainly exists it is no longer institutionalized and it is on the wane. this is simply not true in other minority circles.  i find it hilarious that white democrats in particular are so quick to denounce even the most slightly off-color remark as virulently racist if it is uttered by a white dude, but they talk themselves unconscious excusing horribly racist behavior/speech in other minority groups. this double standard is, at best naive if it is unconscious and at worst Orwellian if it is deliberate.

Martin Prince, Jr.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #112 on: June 08, 2008, 05:12:19 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,3458770,full.story

This is the first article that comes up in a Google search for "Obama McCain latino vote."  It cites a new poll that says Obama leads McCain 62-29 [among Latinos].  (For comparison's sake, Kerry beat Bush among Latino voters 55-44; Gore beat Bush 62-35.  Bush, of course, was another Southwestern Republican who was supposed to win Latinos because of his conciliatory tone on immigration, his associations with prominent Latino and Latin American figures like Gonzales and Fox, his stabs at Spanish-speaking, etc.)  None of the articles you cite are about an Obama-McCain matchup in the general election.



Miss P, your reply is off point.  how McCain polls against Obama with Latinos has nothing to with the prevalent anti-black bias in hispanic social circles.  Kerry and Gore were white so mentioning them is irrelevant. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202860.html

[snip]

Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.
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mbw

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #113 on: June 08, 2008, 05:36:03 PM »
all-out left-winger

This is where you lost me.  Sorry, kid.

Moi aussi.

I'm an all-out left-winger.  Obama pales in comparison ;).
I'm in a lynch mob?  I had no idea.  This is really worrying; I really don't have time for another extra-curricular activity.

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Alan Shore

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #114 on: June 08, 2008, 05:49:59 PM »
all-out left-winger

This is where you lost me.  Sorry, kid.

Moi aussi.

I'm an all-out left-winger.  Obama pales in comparison ;).

Thing of it from a right-winger perspective! ;)

vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #115 on: June 08, 2008, 05:52:47 PM »
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.
[/quote]

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.

mbw

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #116 on: June 08, 2008, 06:11:57 PM »
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.
[/quote]

Which is why Diane Watson's CD is heavily Latino and Asian.
I'm in a lynch mob?  I had no idea.  This is really worrying; I really don't have time for another extra-curricular activity.

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Martin Prince, Jr.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #117 on: June 08, 2008, 06:31:02 PM »
Quote
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.

Ooooooo-K. First things first: this poll is not a poll of "Latinos in LA," but a Los Angeles Times article about multiple nationwide polls of Latinos. Second, you provide no evidence on why one cannot rely on exit polls or "pre-vote polling data" instead of your "census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis," none of which, I might add, you actually do in this thread. What the polls the LA Times cites indicate are that Latinos nationwide are moving toward the Democratic Party, which is fairly in line with what the rest of the country is doing. Now if you actually want to make the opposite argument, back it up. But don't try and distract with some meta-issue such as exit polls and pre-voting polls being unreliable due to some bizarre Wilder effect that you aren't interested in actually proving.
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vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #118 on: June 08, 2008, 06:37:33 PM »
even if we assume that more hispanics will vote republican or simply stay home due to the race thing, i haven't seen convincing support for the assertion that this drop in hispanic support would be greater than potential increases in turnout among african-americans.  care to comment?

i agree with your comment that hispanics might just stay at home, although mccain was a big proponent of immigration reform and made efforts to distance himself from the anti-immigration camp of the republican party.  this should help him...and of course he is the senator from az.  at the end of the day though, hispanics are and will probably remain democrats (even if socially, as staunch catholics, they are quite conservative, things like gay rights and abortion don't do very well with them).  it is going to hurt obama because areas likely to see the largest increase in black voters (Georgia has over 600,000 unregistered affican-americans) are also deeply red states.  you tend to see larger hispanic populations in states that are up for grabs (virginia, north carolina, minnesota, wisconsin, i would add california but i think that is a safely blue state, regardless of what evolves) than in those deep south enclaves. that is why losing even one third of the hispanic vote due to racism could cost him the election.

vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #119 on: June 08, 2008, 06:40:07 PM »
Quote
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.

Ooooooo-K. First things first: this poll is not a poll of "Latinos in LA," but a Los Angeles Times article about multiple nationwide polls of Latinos. Second, you provide no evidence on why one cannot rely on exit polls or "pre-vote polling data" instead of your "census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis," none of which, I might add, you actually do in this thread. What the polls the LA Times cites indicate are that Latinos nationwide are moving toward the Democratic Party, which is fairly in line with what the rest of the country is doing. Now if you actually want to make the opposite argument, back it up. But don't try and distract with some meta-issue such as exit polls and pre-voting polls being unreliable due to some bizarre Wilder effect that you aren't interested in actually proving.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/03/eveningnews/main653562.shtml
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137451,00.html
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/07/senate-exit-polls-early/

exit polls are notoriously unreliable.  or did you forget the whole kerry-bush election?