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Author Topic: Why Obama will lose in the fall  (Read 80507 times)

Martin Prince, Jr.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #100 on: June 07, 2008, 04:29:24 PM »
A lot of axe-grinding by the OP, but nothing on the substance of his allegations, so I'm just going to quote my last post:

Interesting how the racism Latinos supposedly feel towards black Americans isn't affecting their support of Barack Obama. From an LA Times poll: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,5793717.story

Quote
A new Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain. Others have found a wide gap as well. The pro-Democratic group Democracy Corps compiled surveys from March through May that showed Obama with a 19-point lead among Latinos. And a Times poll published last month showed Obama leading McCain among California Latinos by 14 points.

Republicans say McCain's numbers among Latinos at the moment are disappointing -- far below the goals set by a campaign that has long believed McCain could challenge the traditional Democratic dominance of the Latino electorate.

The numbers suggest that McCain's image has suffered after a competitive GOP primary in which he renounced some of the moderate views on immigration popular among many Latinos. For example, McCain, who was a chief sponsor of legislation creating a path to citizenship for most of the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, now says he believes the government must focus first on securing the U.S.-Mexico border before dealing with illegal workers.

Weird how Latinos are letting actual issues get in the way of their irrational hatred of blacks. I mean, going by the OP's original formulation, none of these ethnic groups are rational actors with regard to who they support for Prez, and yet the data just doesn't back it up, I don't understand!!!!

I'm sure the original poster doesn't appreciate stupid "facts" and "data" getting in the way of his 10 year old anecdotes about racist minorities, but I think others will. Read the whole article, it's great.
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Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #101 on: June 07, 2008, 04:56:52 PM »
the sting in any rebuke is the truth.

In this case, no; it's the obstinacy of the accuser.  I don't need to reach back ten years to an Americorps gig to tell you some stories about Latinos in my life or our discussions about race.  I also just think it's weird to use one's friends and colleagues as objects in a discussion like this or as representatives of their race. 

I have never said that there's no such thing as anti-African-American racism among other people of color.  I have said that it's not as significant a problem as you suggest, that your evidence is weak, and that it doesn't seem to be stopping people from voting for Obama.
That's cool how you referenced a case.

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vercingetorix

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #102 on: June 07, 2008, 10:21:08 PM »
ok

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9587776

http://news.ncmonline.com/news/view_article.html?article_id=00c83b0739520c4f380469df2c520743

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0429/p01s07-ussc.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/us/politics/15hispanic.html?hp

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6304803

it's like shooting fish in a barrel.  those of you who do not see this issue are blind to facts.  I picked from the first page of 350,000 on the search of 1,410,000 for hispanic black tension. other searches would have revealed more info on the FIRST page i am certain.  you are in denial.  my hispanic friends think you are in denial.  my african-american friends think you are in denial.  my asian-american friends think you are in denial.  this is a white, rich-kid, pampered, guilt-ridden, whitey board. that is all I will say.  life with blinders on is harder. keep at it.

Saxby Clemens II

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #103 on: June 08, 2008, 02:28:38 AM »
I don't think anyone denied that tensions existed.  Miss P, anyway, acknowledged the existence but had a difference of opinion as to exactly what role they played in this Democratic primary.

Why would anyone shoot fish in a barrel? 
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Julie Fern

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #104 on: June 08, 2008, 08:49:36 AM »
ok

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9587776

http://news.ncmonline.com/news/view_article.html?article_id=00c83b0739520c4f380469df2c520743

http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0429/p01s07-ussc.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/15/us/politics/15hispanic.html?hp

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6304803

it's like shooting fish in a barrel. those of you who do not see this issue are blind to facts. I picked from the first page of 350,000 on the search of 1,410,000 for hispanic black tension. other searches would have revealed more info on the FIRST page i am certain. you are in denial. my hispanic friends think you are in denial. my african-american friends think you are in denial. my asian-american friends think you are in denial. this is a white, rich-kid, pampered, guilt-ridden, whitey board. that is all I will say. life with blinders on is harder. keep at it.

you just hoping obama supporters lose heart.  that going work about well as your campaign restore french monarchy.

Julie Fern

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #105 on: June 08, 2008, 08:50:53 AM »
I don't think anyone denied that tensions existed. Miss P, anyway, acknowledged the existence but had a difference of opinion as to exactly what role they played in this Democratic primary.

Why would anyone shoot fish in a barrel?

good question.

Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #106 on: June 08, 2008, 12:17:55 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,3458770,full.story

This is the first article that comes up in a Google search for "Obama McCain latino vote."  It cites a new poll that says Obama leads McCain 62-29 [among Latinos].  (For comparison's sake, Kerry beat Bush among Latino voters 55-44; Gore beat Bush 62-35.  Bush, of course, was another Southwestern Republican who was supposed to win Latinos because of his conciliatory tone on immigration, his associations with prominent Latino and Latin American figures like Gonzales and Fox, his stabs at Spanish-speaking, etc.)  None of the articles you cite are about an Obama-McCain matchup in the general election.

To the extent Latinos vote as a bloc, they are solidly Democratic (with some exceptions like Cuban Americans).  The kinds of racial tensions your articles mention are mostly in the context of race-based violence in high schools, gang turf wars, and localized contests for resources such as municipal contracting.  These are hardly likely to affect a presidential election.  Of course there are some larger political tensions between African-Americans and Latinos in the civil rights community, but since Obama is not running as a traditional civil rights candidate (somewhat to my dismay), he doesn't stoke these tensions. 

Asian Americans also do not vote as a bloc.  They are deeply divided by national-ethicity, generation, class, and geography.  They also make up under 5% of the electorate (estimates run as low as 2%), and are only significant voting populations in states that are sure to go Democratic (New York, Illinois, California, Washington).  (FWIW, I do election protection/poll-watching with AALDEF almost every year -- I did NAACP/People for The American Way in 2004.  Anecdotally, I can tell you that Asian Americans vote for African Americans all the time.)

I do not accept the premise of this thread, that Asian Americans and Latinos are any more racist against African Americans than other segments of the population.  I'm sure racial prejudice will cause an undue number of voters to turn against Obama.  I just think it's highly unlikely that the prejudice among these groups will be a decisive factor in the election.

EDIT as indicated
That's cool how you referenced a case.

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I'm so far from the end of my tether right now that I reckon I could knit myself some socks with the slack.

Julie Fern

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #107 on: June 08, 2008, 12:22:59 PM »
richochet?  better alternatives?  going cause leak in barrel?  president gump suggest it?

Saxby Clemens II

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #108 on: June 08, 2008, 12:24:24 PM »
If they're the scary monkfish from Top Chef, I actually wouldn't mind them being shot. 
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Alan Shore

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #109 on: June 08, 2008, 12:44:12 PM »
Unfortunately, race will be the only reason discussed should Obama lose.

There are some other factors that would cause people to not vote for Obama that people are forgetting about:

1) We forget the "one-issue" voters who will vote based entirely on either a pro-gun or pro-life agenda... in other words, Republican.
2) Sadly, many evangelicals still vote the way they are told... in other words, Republican.
3) The presumptive Republican candidate isn't... well, he's not that Republican. And for the many, many moderates that exist, they may want to go with a middle-of-the-roader, instead of an all-out left-winger.
4) It was a lose-lose for Democrats. I am a white male. Just yesterday, I expressed my glee that Obama beat Hillary... and someone said, "You only didn't want her because she's a woman!" And she was dead serious. So for Democrats, either you're a racist or against women's rights. The Democratic race was never about the issues, it was the woman vs. the black. And that is unfortunate.

Nobody talks about the fact that blacks overwhelmingly voted for Obama. Is that racism?

Let's pay attention to the real issues: plans for the economy, the housing crisis, alternative fuel sources, etc. Now is a great time to unite our country, not to make it more divisive. 

To help, go to these sites:

Obama: http://www.barackobama.com/issues/

McCain: http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/