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Why Obama will lose in the fall

Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #850 on: September 22, 2008, 07:36:47 PM »
oh here's one of those silly independent groups who also think john mccain is an independent in republican disguise..

.how un-republican of mccain, recently to give pres. bush a tongue lashing...

...it is so rare for mccain to do anything outside the republican playbook...he never joins in with bi-partisan legislation...and this business of suggesting that he would appoint democrat ny attorney general andrew cuomo...

is that republican??? or independent???
  ;)

N.Y. GOP loves Independence Party's nod to John McCain
Sunday, September 21st 2008, 9:10 PM

The state Independence Party's endorsement of Republican John McCain has very little to do with the race for the White House.

It's really a move to help Senate Republicans retain their majority, and not even an eleventh-hour plea from Barack Obama's campaign could prevent New York's largest third party from casting its lot with McCain on Saturday.

Independence Party Chairman Frank MacKay, who once hoped to run Mayor Bloomberg for President on his ballot line, confirmed he got an entreaty from Obama's camp Friday but never spoke to the candidate.

"I respect [Obama] very much, but for the first time in my lifetime, we have the opportunity to elect an independent and reformer to the White House, and that's John McCain," MacKay said.

Oddly, while Obama's campaign might have tried to change his mind, MacKay said he never heard "one word" from a key state Democrat, Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith, regarding the Independence Party's presidential endorsement plans.

MacKay is gambling big time on McCain, who is widely expected to lose in Democrat-dominated New York despite a recent poll that showed him trailing Obama here by just 5 percentage points among likely voters. MacKay didn't deny that providing McCain with a third ballot line in New York was really designed to help the endangered Senate Republicans, who are just two seats away from losing the majority.

The Independence Party has long been allied with the Senate GOP and bent over backward this year to endorse Republican incumbents and candidates in key races, even changing its own rules to do so.

The hope is that disaffected Republicans and independents willing to pull the lever for McCain on Row C in November will continue down the line and support GOP Senate candidates there, too. In close races, the votes on third-party lines could prove crucial in the battle for control of the Senate.


Doug Forand, a consultant for Senate Democrats, said the power of the Independence Party's coattails is "seriously overestimated."

In 2006, for example, the party endorsed both Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer and then-GOP Sen. Nick Spano in Westchester. Spitzer won handily, but Spano lost to Democrat Andrea Stewart-Cousins.

"Voters didn't go into the booth and vote down the C line," Forand said. "They went in and made decisions based on individual candidates."

Joe Bruno has said he will help his former Senate colleagues in their fight to maintain the majority this year, but so far he's keeping a low profile.

That's fine with some Republicans, who say no news is good news when it comes to the ex-majority leader. They anxiously scan the headlines daily for word of the ongoing FBI investigation into Bruno's business interests.

"If something happens with that between now and Election Day, it changes the whole dynamic in the Senate," one highly placed Republican said. "Every day that nothing happens is a good day for the GOP."



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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #851 on: September 22, 2008, 07:57:26 PM »
oh here's one of those silly independent groups who also think john mccain is an independent in republican disguise..

.how un-republican of mccain, recently to give pres. bush a tongue lashing...

...it is so rare for mccain to do anything outside the republican playbook...he never joins in with bi-partisan legislation...and this business of suggesting that he would appoint democrat ny attorney general andrew cuomo...

is that republican??? or independent???
  ;)

N.Y. GOP loves Independence Party's nod to John McCain
Sunday, September 21st 2008, 9:10 PM

The state Independence Party's endorsement of Republican John McCain has very little to do with the race for the White House.

It's really a move to help Senate Republicans retain their majority, and not even an eleventh-hour plea from Barack Obama's campaign could prevent New York's largest third party from casting its lot with McCain on Saturday.

Independence Party Chairman Frank MacKay, who once hoped to run Mayor Bloomberg for President on his ballot line, confirmed he got an entreaty from Obama's camp Friday but never spoke to the candidate.

"I respect [Obama] very much, but for the first time in my lifetime, we have the opportunity to elect an independent and reformer to the White House, and that's John McCain," MacKay said.

Oddly, while Obama's campaign might have tried to change his mind, MacKay said he never heard "one word" from a key state Democrat, Senate Minority Leader Malcolm Smith, regarding the Independence Party's presidential endorsement plans.

MacKay is gambling big time on McCain, who is widely expected to lose in Democrat-dominated New York despite a recent poll that showed him trailing Obama here by just 5 percentage points among likely voters. MacKay didn't deny that providing McCain with a third ballot line in New York was really designed to help the endangered Senate Republicans, who are just two seats away from losing the majority.

The Independence Party has long been allied with the Senate GOP and bent over backward this year to endorse Republican incumbents and candidates in key races, even changing its own rules to do so.

The hope is that disaffected Republicans and independents willing to pull the lever for McCain on Row C in November will continue down the line and support GOP Senate candidates there, too. In close races, the votes on third-party lines could prove crucial in the battle for control of the Senate.


Doug Forand, a consultant for Senate Democrats, said the power of the Independence Party's coattails is "seriously overestimated."

In 2006, for example, the party endorsed both Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer and then-GOP Sen. Nick Spano in Westchester. Spitzer won handily, but Spano lost to Democrat Andrea Stewart-Cousins.

"Voters didn't go into the booth and vote down the C line," Forand said. "They went in and made decisions based on individual candidates."

Joe Bruno has said he will help his former Senate colleagues in their fight to maintain the majority this year, but so far he's keeping a low profile.

That's fine with some Republicans, who say no news is good news when it comes to the ex-majority leader. They anxiously scan the headlines daily for word of the ongoing FBI investigation into Bruno's business interests.

"If something happens with that between now and Election Day, it changes the whole dynamic in the Senate," one highly placed Republican said. "Every day that nothing happens is a good day for the GOP."



changing its rules to support the gop...so?  the independence party see's that it has more in common with republican's than democrats...they are looking for support and they will give support...so what...thanks for the highlight, though...and my point is that the alignment is in step with the idea that john mccain has independent political leanings...bloomberg is another one...

my point is that it is one more political affect on the election...now it has been advertised...

more independents are supporting mccain...he is an independent in a republican cloak.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #852 on: September 22, 2008, 07:59:02 PM »
so, let me get this straight?  hiliary clinton is trying to HELP obama right???  doesn't appear that way.  Clinton helped Palin out on the View today, though...that was nice. ;)


The Politicization And Depoliticization Of The Iran Rally

http://blogs.dw-world.de/acrossthepond/tim/1.7138.html
   
  Both sides are casting blame on the other for the flap over whether Sarah Palin, Hillary Clinton and/or a representative of Barack Obama’s campaign would attend an anti-Iran rally in New York Monday. That’s fine, because there’s plenty of blame to go around.

Clinton was the original guest, but when organizers learned that Palin would be in New York around the date of the rally, they invited her, too. It is around here that the maneuvering began – liberal critics of inviting Palin saw political motives among organizers in boosting the John McCain-Palin ticket with Jewish voters (not to mention family ties between the two camps), and when Clinton abruptly pulled out of the event following Palin’s invitation, conservative critics savaged her for putting politics ahead of an important protest. The Obama campaign arranged to have a surrogate, Rep. Robert Wexler, attend. But by the time that happened, several liberal-leaning Jewish groups had begun a protest of Palin’s appearance, figuring she would outshine anyone from Obama's campaign other than her vice-presidential equivalent, Joe Biden, and Palin was out.

The fallout was swift. Some of the liberal-leaning groups were pleased when Palin was disinvited, a move the organizers said they were forced to make if they wanted the event to be devoid of politics. A local New York station reported that some unnamed Democrats threatened the organizers' tax exempt status if Palin spoke, infuriating the right. Said one of the groups involved about the whole mess: “Sen. Clinton’s appearance at a rally with Gov. Palin would have sent a strong message to Ahmadinejad and his cronies – that Americans understand the threat and stand together against it. Instead we have divided ourselves in front of it." Clearly the rally organizers did not consider all the ramifications of inviting a former Democratic presidential candidate and the Republican vice presidential candidate to their event in the stretch run of a heated campaign. But given how much Democrats have made this year about their confidence on foreign policy in this election, it is strange that Clinton didn't stay put or that the liberal-leaning groups didn't relent in their pressure to disinvite Palin once the Obama camp was prepared to send Wexler.

There really wasn’t any good way for this to end; once Palin was invited and Clinton pulled out, the rally was doomed to get wrapped up in the 2008 campaign, no matter what organizers did after that. Still, the rally drew thousands, according to news reports, even without Palin, Clinton or anyone else. It’s hard to believe the rally wouldn’t have been bigger had Palin and/or Clinton attended, but the publicity over the feud surely won it more attention than an anti-Iran rally might have gotten otherwise.

And if you get curious about what Palin and Clinton might have said, my old paper, The New York Sun, obtained the remarks they might have delivered. You can read them here and here.

Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #853 on: September 22, 2008, 07:59:37 PM »
People think McCain is an independent != McCain is an independent.

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #854 on: September 22, 2008, 08:26:26 PM »
People think McCain is an independent != McCain is an independent.


so is mccain an independent or not?  now aye am confused...

maybe he is just a clever democrat....if so...that's who aye will continue to support....aye don't care if he is just a clever democrat...that is also the way we independents think...too difficult to follow, huh?  wearisome. ;)


Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #855 on: September 22, 2008, 08:28:45 PM »
Aristotle is fat and happy.  Piggy is generating electricity in his future grave.

Saxby Clemens II

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #856 on: September 22, 2008, 10:27:33 PM »
Oh please, nothing good would have come out of Hillary and Palin being at that event.  Any coverage of its intended purpose would have been lost in a girl-on-girl media *&^%-storm and yet more attention would be directed at Palin rather than Obama or even McCain. 

She absolutely did the right thing, as far as the campaign is concerned. 

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #857 on: September 23, 2008, 05:40:11 AM »
Oh please, nothing good would have come out of Hillary and Palin being at that event.  Any coverage of its intended purpose would have been lost in a girl-on-girl media *&^%-storm and yet more attention would be directed at Palin rather than Obama or even McCain. 

She absolutely did the right thing, as far as the campaign is concerned. 

oh, yeah...that's not an excuse...clinton is a crybaby come on just say it...and she really helped out obama, right?
come on...be serious. ::)

obama's handlers and the lady herself were behind the whole stunt of the wimping out...


palin scares the shite out of the dems and it shows...

aye see and smell blood in the water...


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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #858 on: September 23, 2008, 05:46:30 AM »
no, hiliary didn't hurt obama's chances... riiiiaaght.


Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters
By ALAN FRAM and TREVOR TOMPSON – 2 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama's support from backers of Hillary Rodham Clinton is stuck smack where it was in June, a poll showed Tuesday, a stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with members of the Democratic Party in the close presidential race.

An Associated Press-Yahoo News poll shows that among adults who backed his rival during their bitter primary campaign, 58 percent now support Obama. That is the same percentage who said so in June, when Clinton ended her bid and urged her backers to line up behind the Democratic senator from Illinois.

The poll shows that while Obama has gained ground among Clinton's supporters — 69 percent view him favorably now, up 9 percentage points from June — this has yet to translate into more of their support.

In part, this is because their positive views of Republican presidential nominee John McCain have also improved during this period.

Those supporting McCain have also edged up from 21 percent to 28 percent, with the number of undecided staying constant, the survey showed.

Clinton backers' reluctance to support Obama helps explain why he is having a tougher time solidifying partisan supporters than McCain. Overall, 74 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama, compared with 87 percent of Republicans behind the Arizona senator. About nine in 10 Clinton supporters are Democrats.

The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues. From establishing a timeline for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq to abortion to canceling tax cuts on the rich, their views of the importance of issues are virtually identical to Democrats in general.

Yet they find Obama less likable, honest, experienced and inspiring than Democrats overall do, and have a better view of McCain. And while majorities of Clinton supporters say Obama shares their values and understands ordinary Americans, they're less likely to say so than Democrats overall.

"It's just a gut feeling, my gut tells me he's not it," Leslye Burgess, 53, a federal Treasury Department manager and Democrat from Fairfax, Va., said of Obama. The Clinton supporter added, "I'll have to fight with myself between now and November" about how she'll vote.

The GOP's selection of Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate has had no net impact on Clinton loyalists — a group Republicans were hoping to lure by picking the Alaska governor. Twenty-one percent in the poll said Palin on the ticket makes them likelier to back McCain, 21 percent said it makes them less likely, and 58 percent said it had no impact.

The choice of Joe Biden as Democratic vice presidential candidate makes them a bit likelier to vote for Obama, but seven in 10 said it won't be a factor.

Other September polls have shown Obama making progress in recent weeks with one-time Clinton backers and doing better with them than in the AP-Yahoo News survey. One by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama with 78 percent of their support and McCain with 18 percent; another by ABC News and The Washington Post showed Obama ahead 72 percent to 23 percent.

Those figures measured Clinton supporters who are registered voters — who in the AP-Yahoo News poll leaned toward Obama over McCain 61 percent to 26 percent. The discrepancies in the polls might come from how they were conducted.

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said Clinton supporters are turning to Obama "in huge numbers" and noted that the AP-Yahoo News data differed from other polls. He said strong feelings by Clinton supporters were understandable considering the length and intensity of the Democratic primaries and said of Clinton, "She's done everything we've asked her to do."

Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand said the New York senator has campaigned in or planned to visit seven tightly contested states. Asked to explain why some of her supporters still oppose Obama, Strand said, "She's going to continue to do whatever she can to convince everyone, no matter who they supported, that Barack Obama must be our president."

The AP-Yahoo News poll has surveyed the same nationally representative group of about 2,000 adults seven times since November, in an effort to understand how individuals are reacting to the presidential race. Nine in 10 Clinton supporters who said in June they were backing Obama were still with him in September, while three-quarters of those with McCain stayed with him.

As during her primary battle against Obama, Clinton supporters are likelier to be female, white and less educated than those who did not back her.

They trust Obama more than McCain on important issues, though not by as much as Democrats overall do. They prefer Obama over McCain on the economy by 30 percentage points, compared with Obama's 50-point edge among all Democrats. They like Obama on Iraq by 17 points, while all Democrats give Obama a 40-point margin.

The starkest contrast comes from comparing Clinton backers still refusing to support Obama with other Democrats.

Just three in 10 Clinton supporters still not backing Obama view him favorably, compared with eight in 10 of all Democrats. While most Democrats and former Clinton supporters strongly prefer Obama over McCain to handle key issues, those Clinton voters still opposing Obama opt for McCain: On the economy by 32 points, and on Iraq by 47 points.

One in four Clinton backers say they've not yet locked into a candidate — and far more of those supporting Obama than McCain say they support their candidate strongly. Many who have already decided to back Obama say the transition wasn't difficult.

Kathy McVeigh, 60, a nurse from Norwalk, Ohio, has moved from Clinton to Obama and said she would tell wavering Clinton voters "to get on the bandwagon because we need change, we better do something in a hurry because we're going down the tubes."

The AP-Yahoo News poll of 1,740 adults was conducted Sept. 5-15 and has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. It included interviews with 502 people who in AP-Yahoo News polls in January and April identified themselves as supporting Clinton in one or both of those months, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.4 points.

The survey was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews. People chosen for the study who had no Internet access were given it for free.

In contrast, the Pew and ABC-Post polls relied on people saying in September whether they supported Clinton earlier this year. Those polls were conducted by telephone; some studies have shown people can be less reluctant to disclose embarrassing behavior — like not supporting their party's presidential nominee — in an online survey than to a live telephone interviewer.

On the other hand, people in the AP-Yahoo News poll who backed Clinton in earlier waves of the survey might not want to appear inconsistent by suddenly backing a candidate — Obama — they opposed earlier.


Miss P

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Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« Reply #859 on: September 23, 2008, 06:58:52 AM »
People think McCain is an independent != McCain is an independent.


so is mccain an independent or not?  now aye am confused...

maybe he is just a clever democrat....if so...that's who aye will continue to support....aye don't care if he is just a clever democrat...that is also the way we independents think...too difficult to follow, huh?  wearisome. ;)



!= means "does not equal"

McCain is a Republican.  He is not even an "independent Republican" (like, for instance, Senators Collins, Snowe, and Specter; former Republican Senators Chaffee and Jeffords; Senate Johnny-Come-Latelys Lugar, Coleman, and Gordon Smith; Representatives Chris Shays, Walter B. "Freedom Fries" Jones, and, of course, Ron Paul; outgoing Representative Wayne Gilchrest; and longtime maverick Jim Leach of Iowa). McCain has not said or done anything in the last year aside from his recent flopping all over the place on the mortgage crisis that even hints that he is independent from the party leadership on any major issue save, perhaps, immigration.  Here's a challenge for you: name a half-dozen times McCain has voted against his party on major legislation in the current congress.  Actually, I'll give you a bonus congress.  109 and 110.