I think it depends on school, but top 20% at T2 should give you a shot. For example, GULC says blanket 'top 15%' makes you competitive but we know that's not true for T3/T4.
I think if you go through transferapps you will see not everyone who transfers to GW or WUSTL is top 10%... GW has had a big jump in rankings, though, so they might be looking to up their standards? ;-) Or just talking a big game? The crystal ball only knows, I say send in your apps!
Virtually no one stays in MO from WUSTL unless they are from MO. That is partially due to the fact that MO firms look at non-MO students as carpetbaggers. The majority of students go to Chicago, NYC, and D.C.. While it is not the best at placing people in the NE among its peers, it certainly is better than UM.
do you think there is any shot that if I get my app in by next friday, I can still hit the "early admission" process, and have them take me based on my fall grades? I have no clue how I did this semester, and I'd hate to drop only slightly and then be out of the running, vs. getting in from my fall grades and then staying in becasue i still have good grades, just not as good.