12,500 US Troops Pulling Out of South Korea

[Tobias Beecher]

nah...north korea doesn't have oil.

that's the thing, you know.....oil.

[reachy]

It's not surprising that this is a subject you would take a lot of interest in.

I'm curious what you think the effect of Iraq will be on a scenario like this, with such a large percentage of available American forces committed to Iraq and Afghanistan.

It is a concern.  US military power is already stretched thin.  WE have 150,000 troops in Iraq right now?  The good thing is we don't really need to committ a huge number of troops to Korea in the event of a war.  South Korea has about 700,000 troops, plus another one million plus in reserves.  These soldiers would bear the brunt of the fighting, with US firepower as a backup. Thankfully, the war in Iraq has boiled down to a peacekeeping operation, and aerial firepower is freed up, so that shouldn't be a problem.

BUT, SK's forces should be enough to repel a NK invasion.  For a counterinvasion and regime change, I've seen estimates of almost 500,000 US troops being needed on top of the SK troops.  This would be tough, if not impossible with what's going on in Iraq.  Hopefully, if NK invades SK, other allies will help out, including Japan, and maybe some NATO allies of the US.

I think an interesting question is what North Korea would do if South Korea didn't maintain an army at all... do you think it would be certain that they would invade, even with the almost certain prospect of US intervention?

[thechoson]

In realist terms, yes, it would be idiotic for South Korea to trust their self-defense to the United States entirely.  However, arguably, NK does not give a *&^% about the South Korean military, it is the US that has provided the effective deterrence for all these years.

I would think if South Korea maintained no military, NK would have tried an invasion before, in the hopes that the US would not intervene

[Tobias Beecher]

In realist terms, yes, it would be idiotic for South Korea to trust their self-defense to the United States entirely.  However, arguably, NK does not give a *&^% about the South Korean military, it is the US that has provided the effective deterrence for all these years.

I would think if South Korea maintained no military, NK would have tried an invasion before, in the hopes that the US would not intervene

they tried before, it didn't work out [the chinese "volunteers" saved their commie ass]

[thechoson]

In realist terms, yes, it would be idiotic for South Korea to trust their self-defense to the United States entirely.  However, arguably, NK does not give a *&^% about the South Korean military, it is the US that has provided the effective deterrence for all these years.

I would think if South Korea maintained no military, NK would have tried an invasion before, in the hopes that the US would not intervene

they tried before, it didn't work out [the chinese "volunteers" saved their commie ass]

oh yea huh!  Totally forgot about the Korean War, haha

[reachy]

In realist terms, yes, it would be idiotic for South Korea to trust their self-defense to the United States entirely.  However, arguably, NK does not give a *&^% about the South Korean military, it is the US that has provided the effective deterrence for all these years.

I would think if South Korea maintained no military, NK would have tried an invasion before, in the hopes that the US would not intervene

they tried before, it didn't work out [the chinese "volunteers" saved their commie ass]

I actually did a research paper on the PRC's decision to enter into the Korean war... Mao was the only one among his group of advisors who didn't think the US would nuke China for entering. Almost everyone was opposed to the idea, and Mao himself changed his decision at several points in time. However, to the surprise of even some of Mao's closest advisors, he decided to invade. It's funny thinking how history would have been different if Mao heeded "good counsel"...

[thechoson]

Actually, Mao did not really CARE if the US nuked China.

He did not give a *&^% about his people.  He figured if the US was going to nuke China, there was NOTHING he could do.  A very fatalistic approach.

Mao also was a bit reluctant about entering Korea.  Actually, Mao and Stalin were not too thrilled with the idea, but Kim Il Sung was so insistent, Stalin gave a tacit green light. Once *&^% hit the fan, Stalin put a lot of pressure on Mao to enter on the North's side, along with the fact Mao felt he had no choice as the US approached the border.

[marista]

On a slightly different subject...does this make it any more dangerous than before for Americans to visit or live in South Korea?  I mean, what are the chances of any of these invasions, bombings, etc actually happening over the next few years?

The main thing that concerns me is that Kim Jong-Il does not always behave in a rational manner--so would he necessarily consider, in invading the South, that the US would pretty much turn the North into rubble in response?

[Tobias Beecher]

On a slightly different subject...does this make it any more dangerous than before for Americans to visit or live in South Korea?  I mean, what are the chances of any of these invasions, bombings, etc actually happening over the next few years?

The main thing that concerns me is that Kim Jong-Il does not always behave in a rational manner--so would he necessarily consider, in invading the South, that the US would pretty much turn the North into rubble in response?

only if he has a bad hair day.

oops...that's like everyday

[thechoson]

On a slightly different subject...does this make it any more dangerous than before for Americans to visit or live in South Korea?  I mean, what are the chances of any of these invasions, bombings, etc actually happening over the next few years?

The main thing that concerns me is that Kim Jong-Il does not always behave in a rational manner--so would he necessarily consider, in invading the South, that the US would pretty much turn the North into rubble in response?

This has been a subject of discussion among international relations theorists.  The so called "mad man" scenario.  Can evil dictators, like Kim Jong Il, Saddam Hussein, etc. be trusted to act rationally. So far, the evidence is yes.  Deterrence works.  Back in the Gulf War, Saddam was warned by Colin Powell that if he was to use chemical weapons against the Coalition, the US would possibly respond with nuclear weapons.  Kim Il Sung (Jong-Il's father) backed down back in 1994 during the last North Korean nuclear crisis once Bill Clinton put military force on the table.  Quadaffi seems to be coming around as well, by agreeing to disarm in the wake of the Iraqi invasion. 

North and South Korea pretty much have an effective deterrence system going on right now.  North Korea is holding Seoul hostage, and South Korea has the United States on its side.  The biggest concern that might throw this off is if Bush gets hostile to the point where Kim feels war is inevitable and decides to take about 10 million South Koreans with him. This is why China and South Korea have pleaded Bush to negotiate more with the North Koreans, and this seems to be the approach the administration is taking.

Remember, the USSR collapsed without a shot being fired.  There is hope North Korea will end up in this fashion as well.