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Author Topic: Waitlisted at Yale  (Read 25892 times)

lizrd618

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #230 on: April 29, 2005, 01:16:40 PM »
that has got to be the most depressing thing i've heard all week..
gpa 3.759, lsat 170 (ave.)
in: georgetown
out: stanford, harvard
waitlist purgatory: yale (i'll hold out as long as it takes, dammit!) & columbia

risingMC

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #231 on: April 29, 2005, 01:23:47 PM »

Yeah, but our odds are pretty bad now, at least if you believe the numbers I'm about to make up.  Suppose they've already admitted 210 people.  They have an 80% yield, so 42 of those people will turn them down, leaving us with 168.  If 5 of them try to defer, that's 163, leaving 17 slots still to be filled.  With the currently waitlisted people, I'm guessing 80 people in the purgatory group, so that's only a 21.25% chance of admission, which is worse than my chiasu %.

But not mine ... so this is a cause for celebration. Wine, anyone?  ;D

justinmc

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #232 on: April 29, 2005, 01:24:23 PM »
*Puts on his rose-colored glasses.* (Thanks, Lenny)

Actually, I think it's yield protection, plain and simple.  The purgatory email specifically says, "If at any time you no longer wish to be considered for admission, please let us know as soon as possible."  In other words, "We plan to admit you, but we're checking to see if you've already decided on another school in order to protect our yield."  So, under my interpretation, we'll all get in, unless we tell them that we're not longer interested.

Yeah, I know, it's unlikely, but it's POSSIBLE.
Admitted: Stanford, NYU (w/RTK), Columbia, Chicago
Held @ Harvard, Priority Held @ Penn (withdrew from both)
Pending: Yale

shmeli

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #233 on: April 29, 2005, 01:37:51 PM »
Maybe I'm just the eternal optimist, but I have to agree with Justin more than Anton.  It's seems to me that it's definitely just yield protection - they want to let us in, but they can't because of numbers.  I would guess there are more like 10-20 purgatory folks out there rather than 80. 

I like to think that our purgatory position is not because we are "almost good enough to admit," but because we are definitely good enough to admit and just got unlucky to have our applications sent to some incredibly slow, disorganized professor who didn't get his rankings returned to the admissions office in time for us to be admitted along with everyone else. 

That said, though, have you guys sent in additional materials, LORs, essays, etc., since the purgatory email went out?

Rudy Huckleberry

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #234 on: April 29, 2005, 01:57:30 PM »
I like to think that our purgatory position is not because we are "almost good enough to admit," but because we are definitely good enough to admit and just got unlucky to have our applications sent to some incredibly slow, disorganized professor who didn't get his rankings returned to the admissions office in time for us to be admitted along with everyone else. 

Good heavens. :o  I think I'd be more pissed off and disillusioned if that were true!  Not being accepted because of one disorganized person would really suck.

rfilmer

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #235 on: April 29, 2005, 02:04:01 PM »
Anton's numbers have to be at least a little bit wrong.  The waitlist email said that no more than 100 applicants are waitlisted.  (Still an absurd number for a school that never admits more than 20 off of that list.  But forget about that.)  LSN seems to be showing about 25 people as already on that list.  If you assume -- conservatively -- that that sample represents about 1/3 of the total group, then, even if Anton is right that there are only 16 slots left, that still leaves the purgatory group at around 40.  Personally, I would guess that it's between 20 and 30, which may not be horrible odds.

PennQuaker

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #236 on: April 29, 2005, 02:12:49 PM »
Wow.  This thread went from completely pessimistic to mildly optimistic in a few posts.  Outstanding.
Depositing: Stanford
Waitlisting: Yale, Harvard

anton

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #237 on: April 29, 2005, 02:31:59 PM »
Anton's numbers have to be at least a little bit wrong.  The waitlist email said that no more than 100 applicants are waitlisted.  (Still an absurd number for a school that never admits more than 20 off of that list.  But forget about that.)  LSN seems to be showing about 25 people as already on that list.  If you assume -- conservatively -- that that sample represents about 1/3 of the total group, then, even if Anton is right that there are only 16 slots left, that still leaves the purgatory group at around 40.  Personally, I would guess that it's between 20 and 30, which may not be horrible odds.

I just tried to post something like this, but I ran through more numbers.  If they've waitlisted 75 people already and are filling all 100 waitlist slots and everyone on the purgatory list who's not accepted joins the waitlist and they offer exactly as many purgatory list acceptances as they have slots and they have 16 slots, that gives us a 16/41 = 39% chance of acceptance.

Reasons it could be better than that:

(1) They might have waitlisted more than 75 people.

(2) They might plan to waitlist fewer than 100 people.

(3) They might have more than 16 slots.

(4) They might offer more purgatory acceptances than they have slots.  If they make offers assuming the 80% yield, the expected number of people in the purgatory group goes up to 46 and the probability goes up to 44.4%

Reasons it might be worse:

(1) If historically most people waitlisted off the purgatory group decline to enter the waitlist, the purgatory group would be larger.  (because my calculation for purgatory group is acceptances + waitlist offers.  if they plan to offer more than 25 waitlist offers because not everyone who gets a waitlist offer will take it, the expected size of the purgatory group goes up).

(2) They might have fewer than 16 acceptances to offer.

(3) They're trying to fill de facto quotas and the "queer disabled middle-class white male humanities major" slot is taken.  ;)
It's palm trees and sunshine for me!

Javert

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #238 on: April 29, 2005, 02:36:50 PM »
Dudes, seriously. I can't help but feel I should withdraw now. Anton and rfilmer clearly want it far, far more than I do.

[And I still haven't decided whether I'll call Stanford. Maybe Monday. ;).]
Attending: U Texas

"The truth is usually just an excuse for a lack of imagination." -- Garak, "Improbable Cause", Deep Space Nine

'lit

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Re: Waitlisted at Yale
« Reply #239 on: April 29, 2005, 02:37:53 PM »
i'm intrigued by the quota theory, and i'll tell you why: yale is not half women. i don't have stats in front of me, but i remember that just about every other t25 had around a 50/50 gender mix, or maybe 52% men, but yls is ok with being closer to 55% male. i don't object to that at all, i'm just saying-- if they're not aggressively trying to close a gender gap, does it also imply they're less likely to want to fill certain other slots?

i know a couple years back they went to the WL expressly to find more women, so maybe 45% is ok but 43% is not or something...