Yeah, but our odds are pretty bad now, at least if you believe the numbers I'm about to make up. Suppose they've already admitted 210 people. They have an 80% yield, so 42 of those people will turn them down, leaving us with 168. If 5 of them try to defer, that's 163, leaving 17 slots still to be filled. With the currently waitlisted people, I'm guessing 80 people in the purgatory group, so that's only a 21.25% chance of admission, which is worse than my chiasu %.
I like to think that our purgatory position is not because we are "almost good enough to admit," but because we are definitely good enough to admit and just got unlucky to have our applications sent to some incredibly slow, disorganized professor who didn't get his rankings returned to the admissions office in time for us to be admitted along with everyone else.
Anton's numbers have to be at least a little bit wrong. The waitlist email said that no more than 100 applicants are waitlisted. (Still an absurd number for a school that never admits more than 20 off of that list. But forget about that.) LSN seems to be showing about 25 people as already on that list. If you assume -- conservatively -- that that sample represents about 1/3 of the total group, then, even if Anton is right that there are only 16 slots left, that still leaves the purgatory group at around 40. Personally, I would guess that it's between 20 and 30, which may not be horrible odds.
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