Reserve list and I am optimistic as well. From highly scientific studies I have conducted on LSN, it appears as though most of those already accepted at Cornell are in at multiple other T14s, and hardly anybody at that level has Cornell as #1. Of course Cornell knows this and plans for it, but it makes a lot of sense that Cornell will use a lot of its reserve list to keep the outright acceptances low.
This makes my 4th T14 waitlist..seems to be a common theme.