Thanks guys, for the good discussion and realization (for most of you) that this post wasn't supposed to be a debate on AA. Amarain hit the nail on the head.
Based on pure numbers, I would have a 15% chance or so of getting accepted to UC-Berkeley or UCLA (my top choices). but the numbers don't tell everything, and I'm wondering if my chances are better or worse than 15%, i.e. were the people who were admitted with my numbers mostly URMs (which I'm not) or were they applicants with great LORs, extracurriculars, political activism, etc., which would give me hope.