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Author Topic: Gallup Poll - Bush bounces: now 8 points over Kerry  (Read 400 times)

MaroonOut2005

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Gallup Poll - Bush bounces: now 8 points over Kerry
« on: October 17, 2004, 02:48:03 PM »
Since M2 likes to post about polls.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash5.htm

amarain

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Re: Gallup Poll - Bush bounces: now 8 points over Kerry
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2004, 04:26:50 PM »
I still maintain that these polls are meaningless. I think we've gotten too addicted to opinion numbers, when they don't necessarily reflect much of anything. I mean, look how close Bush & Kerry have been, and it changes every day. If the polls were consistently showing a 15 point difference, then I would tend to think that the election might turn out that way. But with these numbers, who knows? There's only one poll that counts, after all.
I've already cleared my schedule for Election Night, since I know I won't be getting anything done.

Tobias Beecher

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Re: Gallup Poll - Bush bounces: now 8 points over Kerry
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2004, 04:30:16 PM »
It's all about winning the few battleground states.

winning the popular vote doesn't matter, as proven by Al Gore.


Leaf2001br

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Re: Gallup Poll - Bush bounces: now 8 points over Kerry
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2004, 04:34:08 PM »
This poll represents less than .03 of one percent of the U.S. population.  While the number of registered and likely voters is a smaller figure, it's still important to understand what a small sampling this actually is.
"What is Legal?  What is Illegal?  What is 'Barely Legal'?"  - Ali G

AaronJ

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Re: Gallup Poll - Bush bounces: now 8 points over Kerry
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2004, 04:39:44 PM »
This poll represents less than .03 of one percent of the U.S. population.  While the number of registered and likely voters is a smaller figure, it's still important to understand what a small sampling this actually is.

That is why you see standard errors of up to 5% or more.  It is hard to construct a resonable confidence interval around that, especially if your intention is to predict where votes are going to end up.