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Author Topic: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead  (Read 560 times)

M2

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Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« on: October 07, 2004, 02:39:53 PM »
http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/news/story.jsp?maxphotos=3&phototerm=Bush+Kerry+not+Nader&flok=FF-APO-1131&idq=/ff/story/0001%2F20041007%2F1239267918.htm&sc=1131

AP Poll: Kerry Holds Small Lead Over Bush

By RON FOURNIER
WASHINGTON (AP) - Sen. John Kerry holds a slim lead over President Bush, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the Democrat gaining ground while Bush lost support on personal qualities, the war in Iraq and national security.

Fewer voters than a month ago believe Bush is the best man to protect the country and fight the war.

The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, charted a reversal from a month ago, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. Since then, bloodshed increased in Iraq, Kerry sharpened his attacks and Bush stumbled in their initial debate.

Nearly three-fourths of likely voters said they had watched or listened to the first presidential debate last week, according to the poll. Only 8 percent came away with a more favorable view of Bush while 39 percent said they felt better about Kerry.

Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards led Bush and Vice President male private part Cheney 50 percent to 46 percent. The Oct. 4-6 survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The race was tied 47-47 percent among all voters. Others polls show the race just as tight.

While national polls gauge the potential popular vote, the White House will go to the candidate who wins the state-by-state race for 270 electoral votes. The race is close by that measure, too, with analysts saying a slight shift in the race is capable of swinging several states from one candidate to another.

buster

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2004, 02:41:11 PM »
damn flip-flopping

absy

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2004, 05:35:09 PM »
good to know

M2

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2004, 08:05:16 PM »
I think Kerry actually has a shot now. This is going to be very interesting.

Tobias Beecher

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2004, 10:11:58 PM »
funny how a good debate changed everything....

now bush is losing momentum.


shaz

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2004, 11:33:50 PM »
Two more debates left. If the veep debates were representative, voting record is no longer off the table.

If Bush hammers on Kerry's voting record it could be a long night.

Also, how can Kerry explain away the use of "global test"?

You can tell this is a soar point for the dems because during the veep debate Edwards constantly said, "John said, John said, John said..." However, when he was asked about Kerry's use of the phrase 'global test', he was real uncomfortable. For the first time that night he was all, "I'm not sure what John said..." That was truly funny.

For all his momentum those two words could really hurt.

shaz
Please pardon any typos. (I need a secretary)
losin' sleep, gainin' knowledge.

M2

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2004, 02:36:55 AM »
Yeh kerry is gonna have hardtime with the voting record and with his contradictory stances on IRAQ/NKorea...

Leaf2001br

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2004, 02:39:18 AM »
How are they contradictory?  Do you mean his intention to keep the troops stationed in North Korea? 
"What is Legal?  What is Illegal?  What is 'Barely Legal'?"  - Ali G

egg

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Re: Polls Flip-Flop...Kerry in the lead
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2004, 12:44:31 PM »
Also, how can Kerry explain away the use of "global test"?

He could explain it away by phrasing it in the same way that he did in the first debate:

Quote from: Kerry
No president, though all of American history, has ever ceded, and nor would I, the right to preempt in any way necessary to protect the United States of America.

But if and when you do it, Jim, you have to do it in a way that passes the test, that passes the global test where your countrymen, your people understand fully why you're doing what you're doing and you can prove to the world that you did it for legitimate reasons.

He says that the "global test" is the ability to (1) make the reasoning for preemptive action clear to our citizenry while we're doing it and (2) demonstrate the legitimacy of these actions when we've finished. That these are good things is, I should think, a non-controversial point.

Given the first sentence quoted, I think it's a little disingenuous for Republican pundits to pretend that "global test" means "I will cede to the world our right to preemptive defense". Aside from their intentional decontextualization of his words, I don't really see what Kerry needs to explain. I certainly don't believe that Kerry is the one in the corner going into tonight's debate.

That said, I think that Bush will give a stronger performance tonight than he did last week- this drop in the polls was a disaster that his handlers won't let happen twice.