Once again, too much time spent sorting through data online to satiate my curiosity.

Of the top 100 or so WUSTL admits (based on index) on LSN who have yet to post their final decision, I came up with the following (ordered from most to least likely that the admitted applicant will withdraw):

22 are likely

24 are somewhat likely

33 are possible

22 are not likely

The classifications were based solely on my own perceptions from comments on the forums. I realize my own personal bias towards WUSTL, so I tried to give a bump, in close cases, to the other school.

The most common decision was Vanderbilt:WUSTL at 90k:120k or 60k:90k, which I placed in the somewhat likely category unless the person was from the Midwest which they were then put into the possible category.

Last year's LSN data has 152 applicants with 100 withdrawals.

This year's LSN data, so far, has 220 applicants with 40 withdrawals.

Of the top 100 or so WUSTL admits (based on index) on LSN who have yet to post their final decision, I came up with the following (ordered from most to least likely that the admitted applicant will withdraw):

22 are likely

24 are somewhat likely

33 are possible

22 are not likely

The classifications were based solely on my own perceptions from comments on the forums. I realize my own personal bias towards WUSTL, so I tried to give a bump, in close cases, to the other school.

The most common decision was Vanderbilt:WUSTL at 90k:120k or 60k:90k, which I placed in the somewhat likely category unless the person was from the Midwest which they were then put into the possible category.

Last year's LSN data has 152 applicants with 100 withdrawals.

This year's LSN data, so far, has 220 applicants with 40 withdrawals.