Law School Discussion

Would the US fold on Taiwan?

$Bill

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Would the US fold on Taiwan?
« on: February 18, 2008, 07:33:11 AM »
      As I watch the most recent Chinese spy scandal as well as our charming idea to shoot a broken satellite out of the sky for "maintenance", as well as looking at our misadventures in the middle east and the resulting overreach of our land forces, I get to thinking about scary apocalyptic showdowns. 
      If China reasserted its control over Taiwan in a big way, I'm talking about an air campaign followed by a naval invasion, do you think the US would issue rhetoric, engage in a trade embargo or at least raise huge tariffs, or actually defend Taiwan?

Personally, I am sad to say that aside from deploying a fleet to the area and issuing rather harsh rhetoric, not much would happen.

$Bill

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Re: Would the US fold on Taiwan?
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2008, 07:44:29 AM »
How about based on the American public's readiness and willingness to enter into a MAJOR conflict.  That or the media's perception of such.  I mean thats who the politicians kowtow to.

Re: Would the US fold on Taiwan?
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2008, 08:37:43 AM »
China is not going to try to recapture Taiwan militarily. It's just not going to happen. Even if the US wussed out militarily, there would be economic consequences. The damage from the interruption of trade would be catastrophic. A year or two of serious recession could literally be fatal to the mainland government. There's no real upside to the idea for China, at least not anytime soon (10-20 years).