Law School Discussion

Nine Years of Discussion
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 91 
 on: July 12, 2015, 10:21:06 PM 
Started by cinnamon synonym - Last post by cinnamon synonym
"but it contains links to the individual polls themselves. "

If you look at the subtabs of the CNN poll, you can see that what Breitbart breathlessly reported was, in fact, so-called Democratic independents shifting support to Sanders.

If you believe that people that are currently supporting Sanders won't vote for Clinton in the general, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

The sun will rise, the sun will set, I will have lunch, and the election won't come down to so-called independents, or loss of enthusiasm (really, do you remember 2012?) or any of those other factors. It just gives people pointless things to talk about in the meantime.

Lol. So what WILL it "come down to" then? It's not a loss of enthusiasm it's who HAS the enthusiasm.  I think the enthusiasm that Reagan and Obama stirred up was what won it for them.  Remember the Reagan democrats?   He got dems to come out to the polls for him rather than sit out the election.  Now that is enthusiasm.  Barak Obama nearly all of the black vote.  Now that is enthusiasm.  It will be a major factor in the general.  I'm not writing with confidence; I just want you to think about it.

 92 
 on: July 12, 2015, 10:07:26 PM 
Started by cinnamon synonym - Last post by cinnamon synonym
It is really quite simple.  At the too soon to tell moment we have fragmentation.  This election will come down to who garners the most enthusiasm and like howard dean and Barack Obama right now only sanders is lighting any fires.  Contrasting and most interesting is the lack of enthusiasm on Clintons side.  As an independent  I can tell you  I don't like the Bush/Clinton option.  Clintons ethics are damaging and Bush's connection to iraq is problematic.  Don't know how other independents feel but the "inevitability" moniker creates a sour choice to most of the independents I know.

Ask yourself this? If both pubs and dems are divided down the middle do you really think enthusiasm will be there for two families that have been creeping around the wings of the Oval Office since the 90's???

Also, I think the pulse of the electorate is still charging toward something newer and different--we have obama to thank for that.

 93 
 on: July 12, 2015, 08:18:07 PM 
Started by i VIII π - Last post by Groundhog
Never mind, just realized this is a spam bot
kindly ban this idiot will you admin?
Done

 94 
 on: July 12, 2015, 06:07:05 PM 
Started by i VIII π - Last post by i VIII π
Never mind, just realized this is a spam bot
kindly ban this idiot will you admin?

 95 
 on: July 12, 2015, 06:05:34 PM 
Started by i VIII π - Last post by i VIII π
So I went further and looked for H. Beatty Chadwick  in http://www.californiacriminalrecords.org and OH... what a tremendous
background did I find...

Maintain..........Agreed 100%. I was thinking the same thing IMHO.

As for the guys name given (to those too lazy to google like I did)H. Beatty Chadwick (b. 1936) is the American record holder for the longest time being held in civil contempt of court...-
lazy lawyer is lazy
direct link me or copy and paste

 96 
 on: July 12, 2015, 05:10:39 PM 
Started by cinnamon synonym - Last post by loki13
"but it contains links to the individual polls themselves. "

If you look at the subtabs of the CNN poll, you can see that what Breitbart breathlessly reported was, in fact, so-called Democratic independents shifting support to Sanders.

If you believe that people that are currently supporting Sanders won't vote for Clinton in the general, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

The sun will rise, the sun will set, I will have lunch, and the election won't come down to so-called independents, or loss of enthusiasm (really, do you remember 2012?) or any of those other factors. It just gives people pointless things to talk about in the meantime.

 97 
 on: July 12, 2015, 04:08:36 PM 
Started by cinnamon synonym - Last post by Maintain FL 350
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/02/poll-hillary-clinton-plunging-with-independents-in-polls/

Here are the polls I referred to. The link is to Breitbart which is heavily partisan as is the commentary on the polls, but it contains links to the individual polls themselves. It was just easier than tracking down each poll.

 98 
 on: July 12, 2015, 03:53:56 PM 
Started by cinnamon synonym - Last post by Maintain FL 350
Obviously, any prognostications this far out are bound to be fraught with unknown variables. The economy, foreign policy crises, scandals, you name it.

It's sort of irrelevant what your personal definition of "independent" is, however. What matters is how they are accounted for in polling data. I agree with you that most independents skew either left or right, and the better polling data accounts for this by distinguishing between Democratic and Republican leaning independents. I also agree (and stated in my previous post) that Democrats will vote Democrat and Republicans will vote Republican.

Here's the difference I see between 2016 and 2008/2012. In most battleground states Obama did pretty well among independents. He even did well in Colorado, where independents skew right.

The most recent polling data from ABC and CNN suggests that Hillary Clinton does not enjoy the same popularity among those designated as "independents". In states like Colorado and Ohio where the margin of victory could be as low as 2-3%, this is potentially impactful.

So, if 90% of Republican leaning independents vote for a Republican (as opposed to the 86% in 2012), and there is lower than 2012 minority turnout, you could see a much tighter race. That's all I'm saying.

 99 
 on: July 12, 2015, 03:37:36 PM 
Started by i VIII π - Last post by sharder
So I went further and looked for H. Beatty Chadwick  in http://www.californiacriminalrecords.org and OH... what a tremendous
background did I find...

Maintain..........Agreed 100%. I was thinking the same thing IMHO.

As for the guys name given (to those too lazy to google like I did)H. Beatty Chadwick (b. 1936) is the American record holder for the longest time being held in civil contempt of court...-

 100 
 on: July 12, 2015, 01:20:50 PM 
Started by cinnamon synonym - Last post by loki13
"In each of these states, Clinton polls badly among independents. "

I have to call BS. There are very few independents. Instead, there are (for the most part) partisans that call themselves independents. See, inter alia, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/americans-arent-becoming-more-politically-independent-they-just-like-saying-they-are/

Pull quote- "According to the American National Elections Study (ANES), 92 percent of Democrats voted for President Obama in 2012 just a tad higher than the 88 percent of Democratic-leaning independents who did so. Ninety-two percent of Republicans and 86 percent of Republican-leaning independents voted for Mitt Romney."

The election will come down to the economy at the time (relative to expectations) and the general partisan extremism of the candidate (relative to the partisanship of the party), with the second factor being much less important. And general get out the vote efforts.

We like to tell ourselves "just so" stories after an election, which are almost always untrue. Telling ourselves "just so" stories prior to an election is even more of a fool's errand.

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