Too bad he's behind in Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
No Cinnamon, this race will be called pretty early. He'll lose Florida. Not by much, but he'll lose it. After that, he's done. He'd have to pull off an upset in Michigan and Pennsylvania, something like that. Not gonna happen.
Just curious, what will you do when HRC becomes POTUS? I'm not exactly happy about it myself, but what will your narrative be then? Let me guess, it was rigged?
I am excited for the day after tomorrow.
Because I assume that Cinnamon Julie Troll will be back on her meds.
I'll be excited, but only to the extent that Cinnamon Troll stops posting. I haven't made any substantive comments about this election since July (when I wrote that I was worried, except for Cinnamon Troll's confidence). Having followed the 538 models, I was seriously concerned about the actual outcome that we saw- a popular vote win for Clinton, but an electoral college loss.
Unfortunately, being (somewhat) plugged in to the local political establishment locally, I saw some early warning signs the day of, and I knew he had likely won by 7:30pm EST. I am still in a little shock- not so much because I didn't see it coming, but because I lack the imagination to believe that many Americans would vote for Trump, despite the fact that I knew they were doing so.
So I balance on that knife's edge- the pessimism that Americans elected our first internet troll, who ran on a lark and has no idea what to do, versus the optimism that democracy is the belief that people deserve what they vote for- good and hard.
You were worried I July? Is that when you finally understood the gravity of an FBI investigation?
And you finally learned what a Reagan Democrat was? Or that the silent majority are regular people from all cultures and backgrounds who are fed up with the federal government?
I think you learned your lesson the hard way at 730pm on election day.
Hey, buddy....re read what I wrote and tell me how I was wrong again.
Bernie sanders would have won this election....so suck on Hilliary shite...
Loki, my little troll, next time you should use my method...
I predicted that Hillary Clinton would not be nominated and if she was, she would not be elected president and the probability of her not getting the nomination would be like a Nixon effect....benghazi and her secret emails and basement server with top secret info would slowly rub her out of politics...and it did. I updated her chance of losing after the DNC fixed the primary for her...the posterior probability that many Bernie supporters would vote third party, write in or stay home greatly affected my original hypothesis--to punch home votes Clinton was about to lose..
So, the eroding effect of the FBI investigation was a strong virus like probable compounded by the probable of disenfranchised Bernie supporters..
Then we have the objective inference of the silent majority vote and my subjective inference of historical knowledge regarding---Nixon, Reagan, Perot, Obama and sanders....we shall call them rolling probabilities.
Lastly we have the data of posterior probabilities regarding location of particular voters (Erie, PA)--silent majority, plus Reagan Democrats or catholics--went for trump.
Based on these adjustments to my hypothesis that Clinton would end up like Nixon is what made my popcorn so delicious and enjoyable..
I was off by my prediction regarding the primary...but the posterior probability that the DNC was actively sabotaging Bernie was truly an unknown for me.
The FBI and Clinton herself lost her with the voters of her own party in key places as well as all over...ultimately those two caveats lost her the election.
And loki, you foolish little troll--admitting you were wrong is the first step to "excited" recovery.
My hypothesis was that Clinton wasn't going to be president ultimately was correct and if you re read what i wrote...
You do stand corrected..
I call my pop pop pop...prediction beysian/subjective/cinsyn probability.
It was the correct model to follow regarding this election.
I hope you learned something other than aye was right and you were wrong.