UF, you may know basic probability, but you're still a n008, and don't realize that the very fact that law school admissions may be independent is what validates my argument.
The probability of getting heads on any single toss is 50%. The probability of getting heads at least once out of ten tries is 99.9%.
Likewise, if the probability of getting into a school is 10%, then the probability of getting into at least one such school out of 20 tries is 88%.
Now, piggly wiggly is trying to argue that law school admission is DEPENDENT, but has failed to give any convincing reason why that is the case in this situation.
Again, to make this clear to the probability newbs out there, if law school admissions are INDEPENDENT, then my argument is correct. piggly wiggly argues that they are DEPENDENT, but has yet to demonstrate why that should be the case here.
i agree with you...the odds of any coin flip is 50/50, but the odds of 10 heads in a row is close to 0%...but the 10th flip is still 50/50...i think that's the difference in the 2 sides here...one's looking at each application separately whereas others are looking at the apps as a whole...that said...you can't really believe that admissions are independent can you??? i mean, at the very least it's dependent on lsat and gpa...i mean, yes, the more schools you apply to the better odds you have at getting in to at least one of them...but someone with a 145 lsat can apply to all the t1/t2 schools there are, but are the near certain to get into at least 1 just because they applied to all these schools? no, that lsat score is just too low to get in...not changing the odds much even as a whole...so to say that you're averaging 10% but if you apply to enough schools you're almost certain to get into one i think is, imo, rather absurd...better chance? yes...near certainty (88%)? i don't think so...