Where should I go next fall? / Re: (POLL) Wayne State v. Chapman v. Pace v. New York Law School? (Help me!!!)« on: April 30, 2008, 03:18:27 PM »
This type of logic bothers me, as an engineer by trade. Sorry to nitpick, but you'd only have 10% chance if the class rank was determined randomly (i.e. not due to any other factors). I'm not saying that everyone who predicts to be in the top 10% will be, or even have a better chance to be. But just that the statement is factually incorrect, because the class rank is determined through factors such as hard work and test taking ability in addition to the obvious luck.
You are missing the meta-point. While you are correct that other factors go into law school success, it is impossible to predict who will utilize those factors most optimally. For example, if 10 people enter law school X with scores in a similar range (as is the case with the majority of students at a given school), each student has an equal chance at each spot between 1st and 10th. Although post hoc, factors such as hard work and test taking ability serve to explain the outcome, predicting how those factors stack up among students prior to their respective performances is incredibly unlikely. Hence, class rank is random and only appears predicable after the fact. Accordingly, each individual has a 10% chance of being in the top 10%.