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General board for soon-to-be 1Ls / Think about this before going to law school (Overconfidence)
« on: November 05, 2010, 02:10:00 PM »
I generally agree with the law-school-defender bigs5068, that school is an investment that can pay off in the long term, and that effort is often a huge factor in finding success.
But I suggest you go through the decision like an equation, and see if you can truly make an informed decision.
Roughly, Financial Security after law school = Take home pay - Cost of Living (different depending on lifestyle and location) - Debt Payments.
Debt payments include tuition payments, lifestyle during school, and scholarships. Those are all basically predictable and nobody should ever complain too much about that part of the equation. Scholarships can variate a little bit, but most students know what they are going to get going in.
Cost of living can variate depending on where you are in life, but this is always unpredictable no matter what you do.
Take home pay is usually influenced by your class rank, your job seeking efforts, the city you live in, the rank of your school, and the economy.
The rank of your school is pretty static, although some do change a lot over the course of three years. However, you still have a good idea of what to expect going in.
You can predict your effort level (although some people vastly overestimate this) so you do have control in this part.
You have some control over the city you live in, but it's going to be affected heavily by the economy and the type of law you want.
Your class rank: Yes, you have some control, but you cannot predict this worth crap. Maybe you are put in classes with professors that you don't work well with, maybe your classes have the smartest students who wreck the curve, maybe you don't do well on essay finals, maybe maybe maybe. Some might make the argument that anyone can do well in law school if they work hard and smart, but the fact is that NOT everyone does well in law school, and almost everyone does worse than they thought they would.
So look back at the equation
Financial security as a lawyer = take home pay (you really have no solid way to predict this) - cost of living (relatively set) - debt payments (easily estimable)
So when people like me tell you to think hard before going to law school, we generally want you to consider whether you may have an option that includes a more stable and predictable future. Law school is nothing close to a sure thing, and is a huge investment.
I would recommend that you take the highly innaccurate income data from your school and cut those numbers by at least 33%.
If the average or median income level at graduation is 60,000, then consider whether or not you can have the lifestyle you want and pay your debt payments while making an average of 40,000 over the first ten years.
(After the first ten years, the outlook will probably get better if you are any good at all.)
When you have almost no way of predicting an outcome it's ill advised to take on too much risk. That is why law school is so different than other fields. The investment is as high or higher than most other graduate degrees, but the predictability is insanely low.
Now you can estimate that you are special and that your income will be near the top of your class. Unless you have previously measured your test taking abilities against your fellow classmates, you have no real idea whether or not you will be at the top of your class. If you get a 180 on the LSAT, maybe you can be confident, but you'll have a scholarship or go to Yale anyway, so this doesn't apply to you.
That mistake of overconfidence is like going into debt to invest in a new company's stock because you "really feel like it's going to go up," and many stocks do go up.
But I suggest you go through the decision like an equation, and see if you can truly make an informed decision.
Roughly, Financial Security after law school = Take home pay - Cost of Living (different depending on lifestyle and location) - Debt Payments.
Debt payments include tuition payments, lifestyle during school, and scholarships. Those are all basically predictable and nobody should ever complain too much about that part of the equation. Scholarships can variate a little bit, but most students know what they are going to get going in.
Cost of living can variate depending on where you are in life, but this is always unpredictable no matter what you do.
Take home pay is usually influenced by your class rank, your job seeking efforts, the city you live in, the rank of your school, and the economy.
The rank of your school is pretty static, although some do change a lot over the course of three years. However, you still have a good idea of what to expect going in.
You can predict your effort level (although some people vastly overestimate this) so you do have control in this part.
You have some control over the city you live in, but it's going to be affected heavily by the economy and the type of law you want.
Your class rank: Yes, you have some control, but you cannot predict this worth crap. Maybe you are put in classes with professors that you don't work well with, maybe your classes have the smartest students who wreck the curve, maybe you don't do well on essay finals, maybe maybe maybe. Some might make the argument that anyone can do well in law school if they work hard and smart, but the fact is that NOT everyone does well in law school, and almost everyone does worse than they thought they would.
So look back at the equation
Financial security as a lawyer = take home pay (you really have no solid way to predict this) - cost of living (relatively set) - debt payments (easily estimable)
So when people like me tell you to think hard before going to law school, we generally want you to consider whether you may have an option that includes a more stable and predictable future. Law school is nothing close to a sure thing, and is a huge investment.
I would recommend that you take the highly innaccurate income data from your school and cut those numbers by at least 33%.
If the average or median income level at graduation is 60,000, then consider whether or not you can have the lifestyle you want and pay your debt payments while making an average of 40,000 over the first ten years.
(After the first ten years, the outlook will probably get better if you are any good at all.)
When you have almost no way of predicting an outcome it's ill advised to take on too much risk. That is why law school is so different than other fields. The investment is as high or higher than most other graduate degrees, but the predictability is insanely low.
Now you can estimate that you are special and that your income will be near the top of your class. Unless you have previously measured your test taking abilities against your fellow classmates, you have no real idea whether or not you will be at the top of your class. If you get a 180 on the LSAT, maybe you can be confident, but you'll have a scholarship or go to Yale anyway, so this doesn't apply to you.
That mistake of overconfidence is like going into debt to invest in a new company's stock because you "really feel like it's going to go up," and many stocks do go up.