Law School Discussion

Nine Years of Discussion
;

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Martin Prince, Jr.

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 20
1
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 09, 2008, 02:48:44 PM »
Quote
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.

Ooooooo-K. First things first: this poll is not a poll of "Latinos in LA," but a Los Angeles Times article about multiple nationwide polls of Latinos. Second, you provide no evidence on why one cannot rely on exit polls or "pre-vote polling data" instead of your "census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis," none of which, I might add, you actually do in this thread. What the polls the LA Times cites indicate are that Latinos nationwide are moving toward the Democratic Party, which is fairly in line with what the rest of the country is doing. Now if you actually want to make the opposite argument, back it up. But don't try and distract with some meta-issue such as exit polls and pre-voting polls being unreliable due to some bizarre Wilder effect that you aren't interested in actually proving.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/03/eveningnews/main653562.shtml
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137451,00.html
http://thinkprogress.org/2006/11/07/senate-exit-polls-early/

exit polls are notoriously unreliable.  or did you forget the whole kerry-bush election?

Do you even read the links you cite? All of those are stories about *EARLY* exit polls, those that are released in the afternoon without all of the exit polling having been completed. The notoriety of these early polls is why networks this year (and 2006) waited until later in the evening before starting to cite data from them.

So yes, *EARLY* exit polls are bad. But that does not make *exit polls* bad. Jesus. And yeah, way to continue pushing your retarded meta-argument about exit-poll and polling reliability instead of actually addressing the flaws in the topic of your own god damn thread.

2
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 08, 2008, 06:31:02 PM »
Quote
Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

i was pointing out the flaw in bringing up the kerry/bush, gore/bush comparison.  these are not on point because both candidates in that poll were white.  the fact that Latinos in LA may or may not find McCain less palatable as a candidate does not speak to the issue of racist leanings within the Latino community towards blacks.  the data i use shows a trend in this area.  ex post data is always better than pre-vote polling data.  the reason for this is that people are not candid when asked racially loaded questions. never rely on people to truthfully answer for whom they voted.  instead use census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis.  this is how you determine what demographics voted for whom.  these numbers show that latinos don't vote for blacks in large numbers when they are up against hispanics or whites.

Ooooooo-K. First things first: this poll is not a poll of "Latinos in LA," but a Los Angeles Times article about multiple nationwide polls of Latinos. Second, you provide no evidence on why one cannot rely on exit polls or "pre-vote polling data" instead of your "census data, voter registration records and statistical analysis," none of which, I might add, you actually do in this thread. What the polls the LA Times cites indicate are that Latinos nationwide are moving toward the Democratic Party, which is fairly in line with what the rest of the country is doing. Now if you actually want to make the opposite argument, back it up. But don't try and distract with some meta-issue such as exit polls and pre-voting polls being unreliable due to some bizarre Wilder effect that you aren't interested in actually proving.

3
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 08, 2008, 05:12:19 PM »
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,3458770,full.story

This is the first article that comes up in a Google search for "Obama McCain latino vote."  It cites a new poll that says Obama leads McCain 62-29 [among Latinos].  (For comparison's sake, Kerry beat Bush among Latino voters 55-44; Gore beat Bush 62-35.  Bush, of course, was another Southwestern Republican who was supposed to win Latinos because of his conciliatory tone on immigration, his associations with prominent Latino and Latin American figures like Gonzales and Fox, his stabs at Spanish-speaking, etc.)  None of the articles you cite are about an Obama-McCain matchup in the general election.



Miss P, your reply is off point.  how McCain polls against Obama with Latinos has nothing to with the prevalent anti-black bias in hispanic social circles.  Kerry and Gore were white so mentioning them is irrelevant. 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202860.html

[snip]

Erm, isn't the premise of this thread how Obama will lose in the fall due to other minorities' racism toward blacks (and especially black politicians)? And citing polling data showing how flawed that premise is makes it somehow "off point"? Continuing to blather on without addressing this glaring discrepancy is making me question your intelligence, vercingetorix.

4
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 07, 2008, 04:29:24 PM »
A lot of axe-grinding by the OP, but nothing on the substance of his allegations, so I'm just going to quote my last post:

Interesting how the racism Latinos supposedly feel towards black Americans isn't affecting their support of Barack Obama. From an LA Times poll: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,5793717.story

Quote
A new Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain. Others have found a wide gap as well. The pro-Democratic group Democracy Corps compiled surveys from March through May that showed Obama with a 19-point lead among Latinos. And a Times poll published last month showed Obama leading McCain among California Latinos by 14 points.

Republicans say McCain's numbers among Latinos at the moment are disappointing -- far below the goals set by a campaign that has long believed McCain could challenge the traditional Democratic dominance of the Latino electorate.

The numbers suggest that McCain's image has suffered after a competitive GOP primary in which he renounced some of the moderate views on immigration popular among many Latinos. For example, McCain, who was a chief sponsor of legislation creating a path to citizenship for most of the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, now says he believes the government must focus first on securing the U.S.-Mexico border before dealing with illegal workers.

Weird how Latinos are letting actual issues get in the way of their irrational hatred of blacks. I mean, going by the OP's original formulation, none of these ethnic groups are rational actors with regard to who they support for Prez, and yet the data just doesn't back it up, I don't understand!!!!

I'm sure the original poster doesn't appreciate stupid "facts" and "data" getting in the way of his 10 year old anecdotes about racist minorities, but I think others will. Read the whole article, it's great.

5
Black Law Student Discussion Board / Re: The Thread on Politics
« on: June 07, 2008, 04:23:23 PM »
The "Whitey" video dropped... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZi6U811hxE

6
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 07, 2008, 09:55:15 AM »
Interesting how the racism Latinos supposedly feel towards black Americans isn't affecting their support of Barack Obama. From an LA Times poll: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-latinos6-2008jun06,0,5793717.story

Quote
A new Gallup Poll summary of surveys taken in May shows Obama winning 62% of Latino registered voters nationwide, compared with just 29% for McCain. Others have found a wide gap as well. The pro-Democratic group Democracy Corps compiled surveys from March through May that showed Obama with a 19-point lead among Latinos. And a Times poll published last month showed Obama leading McCain among California Latinos by 14 points.

Republicans say McCain's numbers among Latinos at the moment are disappointing -- far below the goals set by a campaign that has long believed McCain could challenge the traditional Democratic dominance of the Latino electorate.

The numbers suggest that McCain's image has suffered after a competitive GOP primary in which he renounced some of the moderate views on immigration popular among many Latinos. For example, McCain, who was a chief sponsor of legislation creating a path to citizenship for most of the nation's estimated 12 million illegal immigrants, now says he believes the government must focus first on securing the U.S.-Mexico border before dealing with illegal workers.

Weird how Latinos are letting actual issues get in the way of their irrational hatred of blacks. I mean, going by the OP's original formulation, none of these ethnic groups are rational actors with regard to who they support for Prez, and yet the data just doesn't back it up, I don't understand!!!!

7
Black Law Student Discussion Board / Re: The Thread on Politics
« on: June 06, 2008, 09:30:35 AM »
so they met @ her house.

Oh to be a fly on that wall...

8
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 06, 2008, 03:46:17 AM »
Because only females have grade school crushes?  That's your projection.  I hope you'll own it.

I like, though, how you make a generalization about Hillary supporters not being good Democrats and then take offense at my grade-school comment, which I at least labeled a generalization in previous posts.   



Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, huh? What you said: "tearing apart another Democratic candidate because you developed a grade-school crush on someone more exciting?" And what I said in response was, "Love the irony of the poster who rails against the sexism in the campaign stooping to patronizing comments like "grade-school crush," as if I and other Obama supporters are a bunch of eight-year olds." Last time I checked, the demographics of eight-year olds were evenly split, male and female, so I'll leave it to others to decide which of us is the one "projecting."

9
General Off-Topic Board / Re: Why Obama will lose in the fall
« on: June 05, 2008, 08:53:13 PM »
Because supporting a candidate we didn't feel was experienced enough for the nomination just to be good Democrats is the same as tearing apart another Democratic candidate because you developed a grade-school crush on someone more exciting?

 ::)

Love the irony of the poster who rails against the sexism in the campaign stooping to patronizing comments like "grade-school crush," as if I and other Obama supporters are a bunch of eight-year olds.

I raise you my own  ::)

10
Black Law Student Discussion Board / Re: The Thread on Politics
« on: June 05, 2008, 08:43:19 PM »
if this true, then what significance of upcoming announcement?  it not like there any more primaries or caucuses organize.

The significance of the upcoming announcement is that she gets to look gracious and reasonable, and make public the demands she has of the party (health insurance mandates, I'd imagine, for one), while avoiding accusations of being a spoiler/party-divider.  But I do think she will continue to lobby superdelegates to change their votes.  She sincerely believes she is the best and only electable candidate.

I appreciate the paranoia and skepticism regarding Clinton's motives, but I think she read the writing on the wall yesterday when most of her Congressional Reps told her to give it up. Already the NY and FL delegations which had previously endorsed her are endorsing Obama. There's no way for her to continue to try and lobby these supers at this point in the race, because they all realize there is no more race (and she does as well, finally).

Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 20