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Messages - cinnamon synonym

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Politics and Law-Related News / Re: POTUS
« on: July 12, 2015, 07:21:06 PM »
"but it contains links to the individual polls themselves. "

If you look at the subtabs of the CNN poll, you can see that what Breitbart breathlessly reported was, in fact, so-called Democratic independents shifting support to Sanders.

If you believe that people that are currently supporting Sanders won't vote for Clinton in the general, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

The sun will rise, the sun will set, I will have lunch, and the election won't come down to so-called independents, or loss of enthusiasm (really, do you remember 2012?) or any of those other factors. It just gives people pointless things to talk about in the meantime.

Lol. So what WILL it "come down to" then? It's not a loss of enthusiasm it's who HAS the enthusiasm.  I think the enthusiasm that Reagan and Obama stirred up was what won it for them.  Remember the Reagan democrats?   He got dems to come out to the polls for him rather than sit out the election.  Now that is enthusiasm.  Barak Obama nearly all of the black vote.  Now that is enthusiasm.  It will be a major factor in the general.  I'm not writing with confidence; I just want you to think about it.

Politics and Law-Related News / Re: POTUS
« on: July 12, 2015, 07:07:26 PM »
It is really quite simple.  At the too soon to tell moment we have fragmentation.  This election will come down to who garners the most enthusiasm and like howard dean and Barack Obama right now only sanders is lighting any fires.  Contrasting and most interesting is the lack of enthusiasm on Clintons side.  As an independent  I can tell you  I don't like the Bush/Clinton option.  Clintons ethics are damaging and Bush's connection to iraq is problematic.  Don't know how other independents feel but the "inevitability" moniker creates a sour choice to most of the independents I know.

Ask yourself this? If both pubs and dems are divided down the middle do you really think enthusiasm will be there for two families that have been creeping around the wings of the Oval Office since the 90's???

Also, I think the pulse of the electorate is still charging toward something newer and different--we have obama to thank for that.

Politics and Law-Related News / Re: POTUS
« on: July 11, 2015, 08:13:44 PM »
When I mention fragmentation I think that while one candidate has the poll numbers another will have the enthusiasm and while the Democratic Party was fragmented during the 2008 primary campaign it eventually coalesced around Obama.   Clinton began with great poll numbers but the enthusiasm was pumping up around Obama; he then began to gain in the polls.  The Republican Party is not only fragmented among different factions but divided among the 8 candidates running. Poll numbers are muddled and there is NO obvious enthusiasm among any one candidate.

Again, this will level out after a long primary season for the pubs slogging it out but the dems fragmentation could break if the gap closes between Clinton and Sanders or it too could level out say if Al Gore enters the race or Biden

Politics and Law-Related News / Re: POTUS
« on: July 05, 2015, 07:54:26 PM »
The fragmentation is within the Democratic Party and "dueling progressive agendas"  and in the Republican Party between civil libertarianism and establishment conservatism.

I essentially agree about the basis of the Democratic split, but I think the Republican split I far more damaging to their overall chances.

The Republican split is at least a three way between establishments (Bush), libertarians (Paul), and religious conservatives (Huckabee, Santorum, etc).

 I would argue that at this point the Republicans are in a real bind, a Catch-22. Candidates can't win the nomination or the general election without the evangelicals stepping up and voting, but they're doomed with independents if they appear too evangelical themselves.

The Republicans have allowed this far right element of the party to wield too much influence for too long, and now it's biting them on the a$$.

Even though I'm a Democrat, I hope they figure it out and find a way to be nationally competitive. I don't want there to be one party rule for the next few decades. Competition is good for political parties, it helps minimize corruption. California is a one party state, and look where it got us.

I think that the fragmentation of the Democratic Party is going to lead to a serious lack of enthusiasm at the polls.  Obama dems, and the national Democratic Party;  establishment dems and Reagan/Bill Clinton dems, and the levels of progressives who support people like e. Warren, b Deblasio and b. Sanders. If someone with a true progressive populist agenda wins the nomination then enthusiasm will be up but I think that if clinton makes it to the primaries and wins the nomination she will face the tsunami horde of the entire right wing of the Republican Party.   Then we will have as we independents like to call the "4 year shot"'s what the democrats had in 2008 and 2009.   The dems have a strange dynamic this time around with clinton/ reminds me of when the pubs ran bob Dole).  and the pubs have the same dynamic they always have but there are not 2 candidates to watch---there are many candidates to watch.

General Off-Topic Board / Re: Just an introduction
« on: June 28, 2015, 12:45:11 AM »
Don't you think that that is part of the humor as well?  Sometimes it's all in the timing.   

Politics and Law-Related News / Re: POTUS
« on: June 27, 2015, 10:20:08 PM »
Looking at it from an unbiased perspective - my guess is Clinton v. Bush.

Rubio is a strong contender, but is still too green. Obama was green, but had the charisma and smarts to win debates. Clinton would likely annihilate Rubio in debates. Rand Paul is an interesting candidate, but unlikely to garner enough support from the conservative base. Opposite is true for Sanders... interesting candidate, but unlikely to garner enough support from the liberal base.

Why would you think that sanders won't get the liberal base?  I think that it is the establishment democrats he needs to convince.  Sanders will probably win the New Hampshire primary.

And I would ask you /as I ask everyone\ what if clinton ends up with serious legal issues because of her foundation, or her email situation, her poll numbers continue to tank and she has to suspend her campaign?  After all it is not inconceivable.

Politics and Law-Related News / Re: POTUS
« on: June 27, 2015, 10:13:41 PM »
I think something interesting is going on with party fragmentation. 
As an independent this is going to be fun to watch. Swing states of course will be the ultimate obvious key and the primary voting states could lend momentum to any one candidate but I think outcomes will be static and two way three way ties on the republican side which will add a whimsy aspect-- thus the clown car moniker.

The major quirk on the democrats side is the fact that Clinton has many hoops to jump through if she wants to win because she needs ALL the souls at the polls -- has to have Obama turnouts if she is going to win the general.  She will not turn voters.  On the republican side if Paul can coalesce a majority of independents he could turn votes.  A friend of mine who is anti war but independent only recently started taking Paul seriously.  So, conviction is key if independents are to be swayed.

Clinton has oversaturation of familiarity while Paul is under recognized.

clinton is polarizing while Paul is less known but not unknown.  These are their major flaws.

The clinton campaign has the toughest battle because while the money is there her surreptitious, furtive behavior with regard to a private email server create daily visceral baggage compounded by her comments while standing over four coffins and grieving loved ones where she blames a video for their deaths lends an aura of suspended apprehension for the next shoe to drop.  So, whispers of corruption, secrecy and callousness erode away at the enthusiastic voter pool.

The fragmentation is within the Democratic Party and "dueling progressive agendas"  and in the Republican Party between civil libertarianism and establishment conservatism.

One thing is for sure.  I would not want to be a democrat hedging my bet with Hillary.  And, democrats are never enthusiastic about getting stale bread elected just regard Michael Dukakis and John Kerry.

Politics and Law-Related News / POTUS
« on: June 19, 2015, 08:25:33 PM »
Who will replace Barack Obama? 

General Off-Topic Board / Re: Is ANYONE moderating this site?
« on: June 19, 2015, 08:18:34 PM »
Diddo. How many mods are there?

General Off-Topic Board / Re: Just an introduction
« on: June 19, 2015, 08:12:40 PM »
how many opportunities you going get for that one?

but you closer homonym than synonym, baby.

Cleaver by half.

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