What would be the chances of an African American male with 3.5 and 162 applying to HYSCCN? great essays, good but not stellar recommendations, and otherwise standard softs.

A professor who studies diversity in the law is a black Columbia Law grad from like 20-25 years ago said that a 3.5 162 will get you into Harvard but it is unclear whether that means that those numbers give you a fighting chance or guarantees your admission. Lawschoolnumbers puts URM admittees to Harvard at an average of 3.8 168.

Also, what about these two friends' chances at HYSCCN and T14:

1. First generation college student, Mexican American male, 3.3 164.

2. African American male, 3.69 165, lower ivy undergrad (Penn, Dartmouth, Cornell, Brown), standard softs.

Thanks