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Messages - Maintain FL 350
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« on: July 14, 2015, 01:26:13 PM »
Obama appointed Julian Castro, the Mayor of San Antonio, to a Cabinet position last year. This was widely viewed as a move to help prepare Castro for national office. Now, Castro is highly likely to be chosen as Hillary Clinton's VP. The idea being touted by Henry Cisneros and many others is that a Latino candidate will energize Latino voters. The Clinton campaign is very warm to this lobbying effort.
I assume you believe the campaign is mistaken in this assumption?
If so, then I commend you for having greater political insight than either the Obama administration or the Clinton campaign, that's very impressive.
« on: July 14, 2015, 12:45:22 PM »
"In 2008 we obviously had a historic candidacy", said Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Center. "That's certainly a plausible explanation for the spike in African American turnout."http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/21/us/politics/21vote.html
It is not insulting to acknowledge that people who have been marginalized would find renewed interest when the system finally produces a candidate who they believe can sympathize with their particular issues. This isn't especially difficult to understand, nor controversial, nor does it ignore other contributing factors.
I'm not sure why you have such a hard time grasping it. The Pew Center gets it, the Democrats get it, maybe one day even the Republicans will get it.
« on: July 14, 2015, 12:06:36 PM »
Yes, a decrease in white voters PLUS an increase in minority voters combined to work in Obama's favor.
I wouldn't say that it's merely an argument based on abstract tokenism, however. The Democratic campaign actively sought to make full use of the excitement generated by the first black candidate, and it worked. They gained votes with black, Hispanic, Asian, and young (18-24) voters. I mean, do you honestly think that the increase in black voters was unrelated to Obama's status?https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/voting/cb09-110.html
« on: July 14, 2015, 10:49:23 AM »
It is worth noting, however, that black voter turnout in 2008 was up by 2 million. I think it's safe to say that this was due to the fact that a black candidate was running and the Democrats were able to build on that fact.
Given that the total number of voters was something like 130 million this may seem small, but it made the difference in states like North Carolina.
Pie may have put it, er, a bit bluntly, but people who have been denied participation in the system for a long time are bound to get excited when they feel a connection to the candidate. All those Irish Catholics who voted for Eisenhower lined up around the block to vote for JFK, then voted for Nixon in '68.
« on: July 13, 2015, 07:16:50 PM »
Uh...without going into the analysis above, I'll mention this: electoral math. It, and demographics generally, favor the Democrats.
No doubt about it.
Many pundits believe she starts with as many as 247 electoral votes. That seems a little high, but even if you knock out a couple of states she's still starting with around 220-230. She can afford to lose a couple of swing states, but a Republican has to take the bigger ones.
« on: July 13, 2015, 10:14:05 AM »
If you believe that people that are currently supporting Sanders won't vote for Clinton in the general, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.
Of course most will vote for Clinton anyway, but others simply won't vote at all because to a lot of very liberal Democrats Clinton is no better than Bush. They think she's a globalist, corporatist war monger.
That, combined with lower minority turnout (because no matter what either party blathers about diversity, this is White Millionaire vs White Millionaire), will likely result in a few less Democratic votes.
Most swing states were not won by huge margins. A few less votes can make the race considerably tighter.
« on: July 12, 2015, 03:53:56 PM »
Obviously, any prognostications this far out are bound to be fraught with unknown variables. The economy, foreign policy crises, scandals, you name it.
It's sort of irrelevant what your personal definition of "independent" is, however. What matters is how they are accounted for in polling data. I agree with you that most independents skew either left or right, and the better polling data accounts for this by distinguishing between Democratic and Republican leaning independents. I also agree (and stated in my previous post) that Democrats will vote Democrat and Republicans will vote Republican.
Here's the difference I see between 2016 and 2008/2012. In most battleground states Obama did pretty well among independents. He even did well in Colorado, where independents skew right.
The most recent polling data from ABC and CNN suggests that Hillary Clinton does not enjoy the same popularity among those designated as "independents". In states like Colorado and Ohio where the margin of victory could be as low as 2-3%, this is potentially impactful.
So, if 90% of Republican leaning independents vote for a Republican (as opposed to the 86% in 2012), and there is lower than 2012 minority turnout, you could see a much tighter race. That's all I'm saying.
« on: July 12, 2015, 12:57:12 PM »
Distill this upcoming election own to it's essential facts, and here's what you're left with:
Regardless of primary season infighting, both Dems and Reps will coalesce around their candidate. A few diehards may not show up and vote because their unhappy with the candidate, but historically these numbers are low.
Democratic turnout will be a little lower, as Obama is not running.
The election will be decided in a handful of states: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and to a lesser extent North Carolina.
In each of these states Dem/Rep registration is very close. Independents will decide the election.
In each of these states, Clinton polls badly among independents.
Like I said before Clinton still has a good shot, but this could be much closer than 2008 or 2012 as long as the Reps don't nominate a nut.
« on: July 10, 2015, 03:45:56 PM »
BTW, as a father I would have gotten on my knees and begged the judge to NOT send my kids to juvenile detention. In fact, I would voluntarily relinquish my claim if it could only be supported by sending my kids to a system well known to be rife with abuse and corruption.
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