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**Affirmative Action / Re: Be honest URMs: why does race-blind admissions really bother you?**

« **on:**July 30, 2011, 01:11:12 AM »

The answer to how many ways to get at least one black by picking a random group of 7 from a pool of 3 blacks and 47 whites may be surprisingly high:

(n,r) = def nCr = n!/((n-r)!r!)

Odds a black applicant is admitted: ((3,1)(47,6)+(3,2)(47,5)+(3,3)(47,4))/(50,7) = 37%

Race-Blind System Hypothetical:

Yale Law has a 7% acceptance rate.

Ok, let's keep it simple. Let's say you have 100 applicants to Yale Law. Obviously, there can only be 7 admits.

Let's say that only 49 applicants have a GPA/LSAT range that Yale would accept. And an additional applicant is close numerically, but not quite at par, but he has parents who donate big money to yale.

so you're looking at an applicant pool of 50 that has to be trimmed to 7.

Also assume that 47 of those qualified applicants are white and 3 are Black.

Now stop the hypothetical right there and assume that all 50 applicants are roughly equal in their numerical scores, eductional backgrounds, and work experience (except for the 1 legacy who is not black).

What are the odds that any of the three black qualified applicants gets admitted in this hypothetical under a race-blind system?

After you answer this question, i'll ask another.

(n,r) = def nCr = n!/((n-r)!r!)

Odds a black applicant is admitted: ((3,1)(47,6)+(3,2)(47,5)+(3,3)(47,4))/(50,7) = 37%

Race-Blind System Hypothetical:

Yale Law has a 7% acceptance rate.

Ok, let's keep it simple. Let's say you have 100 applicants to Yale Law. Obviously, there can only be 7 admits.

Let's say that only 49 applicants have a GPA/LSAT range that Yale would accept. And an additional applicant is close numerically, but not quite at par, but he has parents who donate big money to yale.

so you're looking at an applicant pool of 50 that has to be trimmed to 7.

Also assume that 47 of those qualified applicants are white and 3 are Black.

Now stop the hypothetical right there and assume that all 50 applicants are roughly equal in their numerical scores, eductional backgrounds, and work experience (except for the 1 legacy who is not black).

What are the odds that any of the three black qualified applicants gets admitted in this hypothetical under a race-blind system?

After you answer this question, i'll ask another.