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**Studying for the LSAT / Re: Can anyone explain this flaw question?**

« **on:**January 15, 2010, 12:24:17 PM »

Just to point out quickly, the real point of the question isn't really the way they phrase the answer. It speaks to having a basic understanding of probability. If you have a certain probability of an independent event, then subsequent events are not affected by the previous one.

For example, the probability of getting heads when flipping a coin is 50%. Thus, just because you have gotten five tails in a row, it doesn't mean that the probability of getting tails on the sixth try is any less (it still remains 50%).

I really think the question is rewarding this type of understanding -- not so much in the way they phrase it (although, that certainly is a part of it).

what you say is true, but it doesn't apply to this particular question. flipping a coin is always an independent event, so it doesn't matter what happens before it. In the case of this LSAT question, since about half are approved, knowing how many have not been approved could make a difference, but only if you know the total amount that are being considered in the first place.